Stats Q1 2020
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“Competing without software is like competing without electricity.” -Naval Ravikant (2016)

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DRIVERS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

“The great lesson in microeconomics
is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you
and when it’s going to kill you.” -Charlie Munger (1994)

PLATFORMS

“The smartphone is the sun
and everything else orbits it.” -Ben Evans (2015)

7.8b world population, 5.8b adults → age >15yrs (74% of world pop) flatten the curve!

8.1b mobile connections, SIM cards (105%)
5.2b unique mobile phone users (67%)

6.9b w/ electric power (89%), <1b to go!

5.8b w/ access to working/adequate toilets (74%)

3.6b unique smartphone users (48%)
~1.1b Chinese Android, ~1.0b Android, ~0.9b iPhones
120m devices using KaiOS, now 3rd mobile OS after Android and iOS Huawei, relentless

Q4 2019 sales (units): 🥇Apple 🥈Samsung 🥉Huawei
iPhone XR = top-selling smartphone in 2019 fu you covid-19

India surpasses USA → #2 largest smartphone market pg 104
Xiaomi (27% mkt sh) #1 for 9 qtrs, Vivo (21%) beats Samsung (19%)

1.6b cars (20%), of which EV = 0.5%
car ownership is rising, not declining, on track to 2b

1.2b PCs (15%) = 1.1b Windows, 0.2b Mac + Linux growth! first since 2011
48% of new PC sales (Q4 2019) = Lenovo + HP

1.0b bikes (13%), Copenhagen 2016: 1st time bikes in street > cars

480m tablets (6.2%)

237m smart speakers (3.1%). USA: 1 per household

186m smart watches (2.4%). USA: 25% woman, 18% men  food chain

NATIONS

“No nation imagines itself
coterminous with mankind.” -Benedict Anderson (1983)
📙

Security Council’s permanent members: density matters
2.5b Facebook (32% of world pop)
2.4b Christianity (31%)
2.0b WhatsApp (26%)
1.9b Islam (25%)
1.4b China (19%)

Security Council’s non-permanent members:
1.4b India (18%)
1.2b WeChat (15%)
1.2b Hinduism (15%)
1.0b Instagram (13%)
800m TikTok (8.1%) thx! @katherineykwu
647m QQ (8.3%)
516m Sina Weibo (6.6%)
445m European Union ex UK (5.7%)  the empire strikes back!
335m Pinterest (4.3%)
330m USA (4.3%)

Not represented in the General Assembly:
1.2b non-religious, aka “humanists” (15%)
1.0b people with no legal identification (13%) drive-thru religion?

INTERNET

“If your big policy idea boils down to restoring the pre-internet status quo,
it is not going to work.” -Balaji S. Srinivasan (2019)

4.5b active internet users (58% of world pop) reports!
4.2b active *mobile* internet users (92% of internet users) mobile first

4.0b email users (87%), 3.8b active social media users (84%)

separate *mobile* internets: 🇨🇳=850m 🇮🇳=665m 🇺🇸=270m 🇪🇺=260m new IP: dangerous lobby
≠ rights: 🇨🇳New IP 🇮🇳PDPA/Aadhaar 🇺🇸CCPA/COPRA 🇪🇺GDPR/ePrivacy

WordPress powers 35% of the *entire* internet, vs porn traffic ~10%

27% of all mobile internet traffic = YouTube (2b MAU) 

430m MAU on Reddit, the internet's front page

Wikipedia edit rate = 1.8s, only nonprofit site in top 10, zero ads

avg d/l speed Mbps: 31=mobile (112=🇰🇷5G), 75=broadband (153=🇸🇬) index v2020
41% countries: mobile downloads faster than Wi-Fi

3G coverage=90%, LTE=80%, 5G<1% …🧨 IoT revolution pg 24
FCC: $10b → clear 5G frequencies, $20b → Rural Digital Oppty Fund
5G: 🇪🇺Vodafone=111 cities, 🇺🇸Verizon=34 cities, 🇩🇪D-Telekom=6 city by city

COVID-19: traffic up 25-50%, not higher peak, but extended peak change in traffic
ISPs: USA extra GB for free, UK lift data caps on broadband internet=primary, physical world=mirror

2.2k satellites (comms + obs): 🇺🇸=1k(45%) 🇨🇳=323(15%) 🇷🇺=164(7.4%)
internet constellations: SpaceX=360 Planet=150 OneWeb=74 → ch. 11 jeff is everywhere

~10% of internet data on surface web (indexed by search engines)
~90% on deep web (not indexed), fastest growing data ideas

CLOUD

“Computing big bangs = cloud (AWS, 2006) +
consumer mobile (iPhone, 2007).” -Mary Meeker (2018)
 her bible v2019

ppl/biz → “march to the cloud”, storage at ~30% (50% 2025E) to pass: 
consumer devices (35% 2020E), traditional data centers (40% 2021E)

$0.25 trillion growing mkt: 🥇AWS=33% mkt sh 🥈Azure=18% 🥉Google=8%  always be closing
Amazon’s AWS to build VW industrial cloud: data from 122 factories
Microsoft's Azure to move AT&T's non-networking infra to the cloud

EM Cloud Index mkt cap = $1t (52 companies), vs <$0.1t (20 co) in 2010 SaaS reigns supreme (🚨 proud investors)
median SaaS IPO (2019): $280m ARR, 50% YoY growth, 75% gross mg S-1 heaven

Dropbox ($8b): 14m paying users (600m total), Box ($2b): 14m (65m) Hello Sign and hello profits!

Google Drive: 5m paying users, 2b MAU which includes Gmail

$0.017 cost of 1GB of storage (2020), vs $4.4k in 1990 data centers energy usage

Swiss researchers store DNA-encoded data into silica glass spheres

Catalog Technologies stores 14GB of data in DNA molecules

fastest cpu race: IBM 'summit' (classic) v Google 'Sycamore' (quantum) raises $71m

31m Raspberry Pi sold, #3 best-selling general purpose cpu

Moore's law still in effect, but chip-specialization driving prices
$0.002 cost of 1m transistors (2019) vs $527 in 1990 computing efficiency

semiconductor co's racing to develop 5G, AI, SDV, Robots, etc chips
“there’s an app for that” → “there’s a chip for that”
Qualcomm announces 'Snapdragon X60', Intel announces 'Atom P5900'

next-gen AI microchips funded by DARPA: keep USA ahead of China 

OPEN SOURCE

“We are all in on open source.” -Satya Nadella (2018)

low-cost way to kick-start innovation: N strangers, 1 cause
results in *licensed* software, but free of charge open source 101

2008 USA Fed Appeals Court: "violation of free software license...
...conditions → copyright infringement" 2008-18 projects: 79% CAGR track projects

80% of the Web powered by Linux operating system
0.17 bugs per 1k lines, vs proprietary software @ 25/1k lines

98% enterprise co = open-source software offerings in some capacity yes, it's VC backable

Tesla: open sources patents = "strengthen not diminish our position" Elon is everywhere

GitHub may open China office: not subject to USA trade restrictions

Google's TensorFlow library for prototyping machine learning models
Airbnb: listing images → detect household objects at scale

Waymo's Open Dataset: 2k 20sec clips of sync camera and LiDAR data
labeled data: 12.6m 3D labels (LiDAR) + 11.8m 2D labels (camera)

littleBits makes available the circuit designs in each module

Arduino single-board microcontroller kits for bldg digital devices

2011 CERN releases CERN Open Hardware License (OHL)

MIT posts open-source plans for $100 emergency ventilator

Open Source for America advocates for OSS in USA federal government #time'sup bureaucrats

Mil-OSS group: advancement of OSS use and creation in the military

Signal Protocol powers the encryption of WhatsApp and Skype

BLOCKCHAIN

“What if this technology could do for the transfer of value,
what the internet did for the transfer of information?” -Abigail Johnson (2017)

every single asset in the world will be tokenized
🇸🇪 RE registrar 🇨🇦 gov't grants 🇪🇪 digital ID 🇺🇸 shareholder’s list country by country

blockchain apps: computers that make commitments, ie vending machine
human disappears, software keeps commitments, indefinitely from 1997!

Arweave's permaweb storage tokens: record content → fight censorship

open crypto lending protocols so anyone can earn interest on their money

$180b network value of all 5.3k altcoins/tokens
11 crypto-assets w/ network value >$1b

Coinbase: 30m wallets, 40 countries, insured accounts
#1 crypto custodian for institutions: $7b AUM, 120 clients read

SEC halts Telegram's $1.7b ICO, digital ↛ avoid Fed securities laws not over yet

SEC: only two digital assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum, not securities

banks of 🇬🇧🇨🇦🇯🇵🇪🇺🇸🇪🇨🇭 assess case for central bank digital currency white paper  USD v RoW

India’s supreme court overrules central bank ban: crypto trade is OK

ex-CFTC chairman announces Digital Dollar Foundation think thank

Coinbase's CLO joins Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

COVID-19 stimulus bills define the term "Digital Dollar", *first time* senate  house

People’s Bank of China digital yuan: pre-launch testing ongoing
no bank acct required, backed by state’s ability to impose taxes

JP Morgan's blockchain 'Quorum' based on ethereum: 400 banks join

CAPITAL

“Sorry, are you gonna give us the money
or not?” -Cameron Howe (1985)
 Go Mutiny

USA: 6m biz <500 FTE, 20k ≥500 FTE, 7k co NYSE+NASDAQ ($55t mkt cap) company > biz model
57% Fortune 500 co in 2000 → not F500 anymore, only 60 since 1955 1-pager, so good

top 5 co by mkt cap: hq=🇺🇸🇨🇳, exchange=USA, comp adv=tech/invest

S&P500 mkt cap: Σ top 5 ≈ 18% ≈ Σ bottom 325 = $4.6 *trillion*
$2t cash + cash eq held by non-financial USA corp biz

$107b by USA VCs (2019) 5.8k deals, vs $295b & 32.8k global VC waka waka ($1b for Africa)
13 states w/ $b+ VC ecosystem 2019: 🥇CA=$58b 🥈NY=$16b 🥉MA=$9b Oh, Canada! UK startups
time from 1st email to term sheet = 9 days, v 90 days in 2014
B2B=$30b > B2C=$23b first time in 5 years

$170b+ in underpriced IPO (1980-2019) → direct listing, 🖕 Wall St ha!

Long Term Stock Ex: USA's 5th nat sec exchange, HQ=San Francisco

Members Exchange "MEMX" awaiting regulatory approval from SEC

SEC: simplify exempted investments + raising crowdfunding limits startups 1-regulators 0

$57b in P2P loans to 4.5m borrowers issued by LendingClub

$12b-15b raised by 2.2k tokens via Initial Coin Offerings

$4.9b pledged to 180k project via Kickstarter

$3.1b in grants to 5.6k awards through main USA fed agencies (2018) corp

$1.8b startup investments, 10m angels/entrepreneurs on AngelList

$1.0b passed to 150k creators using Patreon, 3m MAU patrons

$1.0b in rev-share funding to 2.2k companies by Clearbanc

MACHINE LEARNING

“The highest forms of understanding we can achieve
are laughter and human compassion.” -Richard Feynman (1988)

underlying point is machine learning means computers can 'see' AI Index 2019
Google CEO: “AI…more profound than fire or electricity.” all things Google AI

cpu power for AI training: 2x every 3.5mo, vs 18mo for Moore’s Law
103 co designing custom chips for deep learning acceleration

reading comp w/ unanswerable questions: humans score = 86.83
🥇PINGAN🇨🇳=90.39 🥈Shanghai JT Univ🇨🇳=90.11 🥉PINGAN🇨🇳=90.00 Chinese AI

MuZero algorithm #1 player in Chess, Go, Shogi, 57 Atari games
starts from blank slate, *without* knowledge of the game rules mastering games

2.8m potential compounds library to build a battery
ML → 5 weeks to Pareto-optimal design, vs 50yrs via human analysis 

medical research/knowledge 2x every 70 days (2020E) w/ deep learning
2x every 3.5yrs (2010), 2x every 50yrs (1950)

Google Health using retina scans: anemia detection accuracy 74% → 88%

Paige.ai diagnoses prostate/skin/breast cancer >98%. FDA-approved SaaS

USA gov't: $2b to American AI Initiative, DOE: $40m + access to data year 1

770m surveillance cameras installed globally, 1b by 2021E (🇨🇳=45%)
camera:person (2018): 🇨🇳0.25 🇺🇸0.21 🇹🇼0.18 🇬🇧0.15 🇸🇬0.14 ...🌎0.10

🇮🇳 #1 biometric id DB: citizens’ irises + fingerprints + photos

Hanwang Tech: facial recog that works even if wearing a mask

🇪🇺 to interconnect DNA, fingerprint, vehicle databases of all states in Apple we trust  full profile

ROBOTS

“Drones will be as ubiquitous as sprinklers.” -Chris Anderson (2017)

2.5m industrial robots 2018, installed base growing 17% YoY
robots per 10k employee: 🥇🇸🇬=830 🥈🇰🇷=775 🥉🇩🇪=340…🌎=99

2k Walmart stores w/ floor cleaning robots (40% of total USA stores) learns to stand/walk

Boston Dynamics’s 'Handle' plus OTTO Motors: warehouse automation

30 nations w/ defensive SD weapons: engagement speed > human
Elon: 'F35 fighter jet era has passed' → lethal autonomous weapons next-gen defense

Tactical Robotics VTOL tech: deliver supplies in combat/emergency

1.3m hobbyist drone fleet (USA 2018), 900k registered owners
0.3m commercial drone fleet (USA, 2018), 116k certified pilots game over rover.com

Chinese drones rule the sky, DJI has ~77% mkt sh, latest for $399 Drone City PD

SD-Zipline: 128km/h speed, 160km range, 1.75kg cargo capacity

LiDAR "Moore's law": every 18mo → sensor resolution 2x, price 1/2x
$7.5k Waymo 'Honeycomb', $599 Livox 'MID-40', $100 Velodyne 'VelaBit'
Bosch's internally developed LiDAR → “affordable mass market”

Waymo ($30b) at 1.5k FTE: simulation, LiDAR, trucking...$1b/yr burn $30b price tag  profile + org chart

CA: SD permits to 65 carmakers, pilot w/ *passengers* OK: Cruise, ...
3m autonomous miles logged in 2019 (40% YoY) dmv
Mobileye: 30 *billion* miles of real-world testing required 

20% of Earth’s seafloor mapped (100% goal → 2030)
Saildrone charges $2.5k/day/drone to collect ocean data

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

“Mr. Musk—who is 45 years old, the same age as Mr. Ford was in 1908
when he released the Model T.” -WSJ (2017)

7.8m EVs currently on the road, plus 0.5m e-buses
EV fleet (2019): 🥇🇨🇳=3.8m 🥈🇪🇺=1.8m 🥉🇺🇸=1.5m

2019 sales: 🇨🇳=1.2m 🇪🇺=0.4m 🇺🇸=0.3m 🌎=2.2m
best-seller race: 448k Tesla Model 3 v ~450k Nissan Leaf

EVs to public charging st: 🇨🇳7:1 🇪🇺10:1 🇺🇸19:1

top 10 economies non-EV cars “announcements”: 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇧🇷→😴
100%(🇬🇧→’35 🇨🇦🇫🇷→’40), 🇮🇳30%→’30, 🇨🇳25%→’25, 🇩🇪10m→’30, 🇮🇹1m→'22 sustainable kingdom

🇳🇴 100%→2025. 2019 sales = 42% all-electric v California at 7.7% 42% and climbing

VW: $66b e-plan, 300 models (12 brands) e-version by 2025 the people’s car + the people’s republic
Electrify America: 418 stations = 1.9k chargers (4.5 per st)

Daimler: $12b to electrify MBenz lineup by 2022, diesel out by 2039 Porsche

Continental spins off non-EV business, $2.8b write-off to overtake fossil

Toyota: $1b EV factory in China. Honda: EV-only in Europe by 2021

LG Chem's '811' breakthrough: NMC battery 80% Ni + 10% Mn + 10% Co EV Hummer

$160/kWh avg Lithium-ion battery pack price, down 85% since 2010
VW claims they pay <$100/kWh, consensus for $100 "threshold" → 2023

EU: $3.5b for battery R&D, stimulus could add $5b from private co

car maintenance for conventional vehicles = 2.3x EV
400k 🇩🇪 jobs at risk: EV = fewer moving parts

EasyJet + Wright Electric: 186-seat hybrid electric Wright 1 by 2030

CHINA

“The American dream is alive. In China.” -NYTimes (2018)

1978 (43yrs) capitalism=illegal, entrepreneurship → death sentence
China ’09 → #1 Exporter, ’13 → #1 Trader, ’17 → #1 Shipping+Ports Deng’s vision!

China R&D spending $499b (4.1% of GDP) v USA $543b (2.8% of GDP)

#1 unicorn (ex Ant Financial): TikTok ~$95b > 2.6x SpaceX ~$36b in-app revenue
~460 global unicorns: 🇺🇸=222 v 🇨🇳=119. Decacorns: 🇺🇸=11 v 🇨🇳=6
$107b USA VC investments (2019) > 3x China $35b
“9-9-6” schedule of Chinese tech employee: 9am-9pm, 6 day/wk

Alibaba's $13b secondary listing SEHK: more Nasdaq co to follow

$1.2t in infra investments by Belt and Road Initiative (60 countries) new silk rd

BeiDou Navigation Satellite System to rival USA's GPS
70% Chinese smartphones work: Southeast Asia, E. Europe, Africa

USA enjoys comp adv in AI and semiconductor chips war i/o
Chinese gov't funds: $29b → chipmakers, $21b → tech manufacturing READ

AI startups: 🇨🇳=$17b in investment ($34m/startup) > 2x 🇺🇸
🇨🇳: automation, oil/gas, facial recog, edtech, AV, mental health

DOJ: since 2012, 80% econ espionage + 60% trade secret theft = China
acq of sensitive 🇺🇸 tech: fill gaps in Mil+Econ Chinese initiatives great profile
report on 🇨🇳 tech+IP transfer practices: basis for trade tariffs

USA blacklists Huawei: -10% of 2019 revenue (~$12b), -20% of 2020E "Wow Way"
Russian researcher uncovers security backdoor in Huawei-owned chips

WINNERS TAKE ALL

“You call it monopoly, I call it enterprise.” -John D. Rockefeller (1911)

MICROSOFT

($1,200b mkt cap)
“The greatest mistake ever
is whatever caused Microsoft not to be what Android is.
What's that worth? $400b.” -Bill Gates (2019)
 big miss

89% mkt sh in desktop/laptop operating system
1.7b/day Windows devices (installed base), 1b on 10 alone

1.2b/day Office users, #1 productivity service, #1 SaaS product
2011: $21b/yr MS Office, Office 365 (subscription) is launched
2019: $36b/yr MS Office, $25b/yr Office 365 (238m subs)

>1b Android devices w/ Word, Excel, PPoint, OneDrive, Skype installed
0.4b Outlook users (100m mobile), 0.3b Skype (40m DAU w/ COVID-19)

18% mkt sh in cloud computing infra w/ Azure what a monster
18 consecutive qtrs at >60% QoQ rev growth
Azure to build AT&T, Daimler, Walmart, Walgreen's “cloud factory”
Salesforce to transition its marketing cloud to Microsoft's Azure

$27b for LinkedIn (2016): 675m profiles (310m MAU), 50m companies it works
lynda.com, #1 online learning app for 3 yrs in a row

44m DAU on Teams (500k orgs), $MSFT fastest-growing biz app ever
93% Fortune 100 companies using Teams
Teams for Linux in public preview; 1st *open source* Office app mmm

$7.5b for GitHub (2018): 40m MAU developers
acq of npm, default package manager for Node.js, 75b/mo downloads

110m/mo active Minecraft players, 65m/mo Xbox Live users

$18b in R&D (2019): $1b to OpenAI, $1.4b acq of Affirmed (5G co)

APPLE

($1,113b mkt cap)
“Just the way he advertised: Jesus, Gandhi, Me!” -Bill Burr (2012)

$207b cash on balance sheet > New Zealand's GDP make it rain

2.6b devices sold, 1.7b active (0.9b = iPhones) don’t give in!
64% of Americans own an Apple product, 380m iMessage MAU (global)

dx channel: Google pays $12.2b/yr → default search eng on iOS devices

F500 boardrooms wanted *their* iPads to work on the corp network happy 10yrs!
100% of Fortune 500 companies now use Apple devices
150k+ customers are using Apple's enterprise device mgmt software

iPhone: #1 product of all time, 1.8b cumulative sold (since Q2 '07) net yabloko telefon
#1 signal of USA wealth, 85% of USA teenagers have an iPhone
$750+ avg price vs $260+ for Android
76% mkt sh in India's *premium* smartphone market 

By rev: iPhone >> Services > Wearables > Mac > iPad

AirPods → fastest growing product, 60m sold 2019, 100m+ since launch

99m Apple Watches sold cumulatively, 31m in 2019 > 21m Σ🇨🇭watchmakers

$55b in service revenues (incl App Store) in 2019, + $2b/yr in ads Apple Ads

$21b in R&D in 2019, new iPad Pro w/ LiDAR scanner → AR, 3D, mapping 
Project Titan: 70 SD-cars, 150 drivers, Tesla VP of Eng → Apple new cars new processors
iOS 13.4 → CarKey API iPhone/Watch unlock+start car via NFC contact
~$0.2b acq Xnor.ai: ML on low power devices instead of cloud

100m MAU on Apple News, 500m devices w/ Siri, 3m Apple Card holders

AMAZON

($970b mkt cap)
“If Amazon is in your line of business: Sell now.
If Amazon is not in your line of business:
Sell now; your business sucks.” -@GSElevator (2017)

#1 company by R&D spending: $36b in 2019, vs $29b in 2018 palm-recognition
20% revenue growth, but only 50% is direct ecommerce
$1b to expand Prime one-day delivery service: <5hrs *guaranteed*

#1 e-retailer USA: 39% mkt sh (7.3x Walmart), 4.6% of *all* USA retail
53% units sold = 3rd-party: 1,200k SKUs, vs 120k Walmart, 4k Costco

#1 ad spender in world. $11b in 2019 = 2% of global ad expenditure

150m Prime members >Costco: $1.4k/yr Prime member vs $1k non-Prime

#1 fulfillment co: 40 planes, 6k trailers, 130k e-vans (2030)
carries 45% of own USA shipments, bldg own air traffic mgmt system

#1 cloud infrastructure provider: AWS=33% mkt sh, $35b in 2019 rev

#1 smart speaker USA: 55% mkt sh, 70m Echo’s sold (10m in Q3)
1k/s Echo Dot on CyberMonday, 10k people working on Alexa

#1 ebook seller USA: 83% mkt sh, audible.com $ > Σ 1-5 NYC publishers

#2 online grocery USA: 29% mkt sh vs Walmart=37%

#2 largest private employer in USA by FTE (#1 Walmart) get ready india
100k warehouse robots “employed”, 1:3 warehouse employees which virus?

#3 in ads (10% mkt sh): $2b/qtr business (heads-up Google/Facebook)
50% *product* searches start/end on amazon.com, 65% if Prime user

avg Go store: $1.5m/yr ≈ 150% convenience store w/ cashiers
Go Grocery = cashier-free tech. 'Dent' subsidiary → licenses

FACEBOOK

($475b mkt cap)
“If you’re offered a seat on a rocket ship,
don’t ask what seat! Just get on.” -Sheryl Sandberg (2012)

2.9b used at least one Facebook-family app per mo, 2.2b daily off-facebook activity
#1 mobile platform by marketer’s budget spent on iOS global
65%+ mobile social traffic, 23% digital ad USA revenue
140m biz, 8m MAU advertisers (4m use FB+IG+Messenger stories)
100b/day messages (5x peak global SMS), 1b Stories towards privacy

Facebook: 2.5b MAU, 1.6b DAU, majority of searches → people

Messenger: 1.3b MAU, 40m biz, 20b/mo biz-ppl messages, 300k/mo bots
goal: never dial a 1-800 again, 40% prefer live chat vs call for kids

WhatsApp: 1.5b MAU, 1b DAU, 65b/day messages no ads apparently
click-to-chat button on website → message a business
Business API → biz respond using WhatsApp (Uber✔️)

Instagram: 1b MAU, 25m biz-specific profiles (2m MAU using Stories)
>90% users are following a biz, 130m/mo users tap on a shopping ad
~$20b in ad revenues 2019 (>25% of Fb rev) v YouTube @ $15b

$14b R&D in 2019, acq 80+ co in 15yrs, passed on Musical.ly c 2016 great profile
blockchain Calibra led by D. Marcus (ex $PYPL), 100 FTE + hiring new plan
3m paid users on enterprise platform Workplace, up 1m in 8 months
NPE (New Product Exp.) team: podcasts, travel, newsletters tools first superbowl ad ($11m)

India: #1 country by FB users, 0.4b WhatsApp users (payments to come)
in talks: 10% stake in telecom operator Reliance Jio

TENCENT

($469b mkt cap)
“Ideas are not important in China –execution is.” -Pony Ma (2011)

#1 gaming company in the world: by revenue and users bytedance's assault

#1 corp dev team to *own* content: 100% Riot (LoL) i want it all
<100%: Supercell, Grinding Gears (PoE)
<50%: Epic (Fortnite), PocketGems, Fatshark, SEA (Garena)
<15%: Glu, Activision, Bluehole (PUBG), Frontier, Ubisoft, Paradox call of duty

#1 OS for the entire Chinese economy: 1.2b+ MAU on WeChat & Weixin
ecosystem: 1m mini apps w/ 300m DAU, 1.5m developers miniapps 101
$115b transactions via mini apps (2019)

gaming revenue: mobile = 2.4x PC/Mac = 2.9x home consoles
Nintendo + Tencent (titles + cloud) = Switch console in China
Huawei + Tencent = game lab to explore cloud gaming, AI, VR, AR

#1 mobile payment platform 🇨🇳: 1b/tx/day, 800m MAU, 50m merchants general overview

Tencent's fintech biz: if stand alone → 🇨🇳 #4 largest public co
Hong Kong Monetary Authority grants blockchain bank license

$85b AUM on wealth mgmt platform LiCaiTong, 100m users

active investment portfolio of 700 co (100 in 2019): 160+ unicorns
$4.5b → DiDi, $1.8b → Tesla (5%), $1.4b → Flipkart, $150m → Reddit
18% Snap, 12% CICC (bank), 10% Universal Music Group, 8% Spotify

106m TencentVideo subs, #4 video app by rev 2010-2019, #3 in 2019

$3b in R&D (2019): cloud business makes $2.4b with 1m paying users

BITCOIN

($115b network cap)
“We have elected to put our money and faith
in a mathematical framework that is free
of politics and human error.” -Tyler Winklevoss (2013)

first digital/unforgeable/scarce commodity in world history must read
2010-2020 best investments: 🥇bitcoin: +8,990,000% 🥈...

single most mispriced risk in entire financial system #BlackSwan when fiat fails
"no chance hyperinflation could happen to the US dollar"  debt bubble 2008?

coercion into a centralized monetary base: silver coins → gold coins
→ gold bars in private banks → gold bars in the government → fiat read I, II, III

BTC cost of transportation+validation ≈ 0, w/o counterparty risk

stock-to-flow model shows statistical significance w/ BTC mkt value LISTEN!
gold and silver also in line with the model verify then trust

1 BTC > 4.0x Gold oz, bitcoin overtook gold in Mar-2017 volatility = truth

11yrs old BTC: 18.3m circulating (87%), 2.7m to mine @ $6.3k

6%+ of Americans own BTC (0.4% global) → Fidelity rolls out custody brrrr
1995 internet penetration = 0.4% (58% in 2019)

51% attack cost: $21b in hardware, $14m/day in elec consumption
strongest computing network in the world = bitcoin
attacked thousands plus times, impenetrable for 11+ yrs
7k+ bitcoin ATMs worldwide, arbitrage is *almost* over

$1.9b in cumulative fee revenues (miners securing the network)

bitcoin’s “electricity-hungry” consumption ≈ 0.3% world ≈ 🇦🇹
coal power plant in NY installs 15 MW crypto-mining server farm

TESLA

($97b mkt cap)
“Musk has made every Tesla customer a venture capitalist.” -Steve LeVine (2016)

most valuable USA carmaker *ever*: Tesla = 3.3x GM = 4.9x Ford $1t
Tesla’s FTEs = 27% GM = 25% Ford

#1 ownership experience: buy online + over-the-air *software* updates
Tesla's AI chips 6yrs ahead of VW+Toyota. 🇯🇵 eng: "we cannot do it"
luxury rivals = too expensive. entry-level = not attractive enough subaru CEO

safest vehicles ever tested: NHTSA 5☆ safety ratings all categories

🏁 first carmaker to 1m EVs, 0.4m in 2019, 88k in Q1 2020 → 7k/week 1,000,000
Shanghai plant @ 3k/wk (10k/wk goal) 🇨🇳 36 stores + 300 charging st chinese mkt
Gigafactory IV: 300ha in Berlin → batteries/powertrains, 500k/yr plus subsidies
New Gigafactory in “central USA”...Nashville, TN?

Model S @ $80k, 629km range (WR any EV) #1 by mkt sh (37% USA) porsche, not dead

Model 3 @ $39k, 518km range, 0-60mph in 3.2s, 260km/h top speed
#1 selling EV in the world, 360k during 2019 > 1,000 per day

Model X @ $85k, 565km range (WR any electric SUV), #2 by mkt sh

Model Y @ $53k, “roomier” model 3 crossover hello world

Roadster 2G, 0-60mph in 1.9s, reservations at $50k, total $250k

Semi truck: 2k pre-paid reservations at $20k, total $150k

$1.3b R&D 2019E: 0.6m Cybertruck pre-orders, production late 2022
proprietary data + chips + footage + GPS = new products eg. insurance
V3 Supercharger: 1.5k/cars/day, Megapack: 3 MWh utility-scale battery new jersey

UBER

($48b mkt cap)
“This company is undoubtedly the most successful startup
in the history of Silicon Valley.” -Bill Gurley (2017)
📙

110m/mo active platform consumers, 3 marketplaces, 10k cities
riders↔drivers + eaters↔restaurants + carriers↔shippers

#15 downloaded app in 2019 (AppStore + Google Play), ahead of Amazon

#1 app in ground transportation (passed Avis in Q1 2017)

moves more people than airline industry
$48b mkt cap vs $56b ∑ top 7 🇺🇸 airlines

$70b GMV ≈ eBay 2012 ≈ Amazon 2013 ≈ Shopify 2020
$14b in revenue (20% avg take-rate)

Rides: 75% of revenues (86% in 2017), 21% take rate
70 countries, 900 cities, >60% mkt sh  unstoppable nfx
ride-hailing portfolio: 37% Yandex 🇷🇺, 19% Grab 🇮🇩, 15% Didi 🇨🇳
$1.7b acquisition of 100% Careem 🇪🇬 🇯🇴 🇵🇰 🇸🇦 🇦🇪

Eats: 24% of revenues (14% in 2017), 9.5% take rate, 6,000 cities $0→$15b in 5yrs
16 trips/mo by consumers who used both Rides+Eats

Freight: 1% of rev (0% in 2017), 50k carriers operating 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇳🇱🇩🇪🇵🇱

$2.5b in R&D 2019, >$11b "war chest" (cash in hand)
other bets on urban mobility: $140m acq dockless e-bike JUMP 100k users
Uber Money: driver's mobile bank acct, track earning/spending 

Advance Technology Group → autonomous vehicles & Uber Elevate (VTOL)
$1b from SoftBank + Toyota + DENSO to accelerate development

TWILIO

($13b mkt cap)
“Connecting large volumes of cellular connected IoT devices
is still too difficult for customers.” -Sam George (2019)

#1 *programmable* telecom platform: messaging, voice, video, email
real time telecom infra w/o geo boundaries + software like margins giants of cloud

3b+ phone numbers in 100+ countries

$4t global IT budget: 36% communications vs 10% software, 5% cloud

roadmap: 2008 voice, 2010 SMS, 2015 video/chat, 2019 email, 2020... board deck from 2010
$2.7b acq SendGrid: #1 email and marketing API platform
1.5b/day average emails handled by SendGrid

179k active customer accounts 2019, up from 34k (2016)
small customers: notify a diner when a table is ready
large customers: power entire omni-channel contact centers

WhatsApp, Shopify, Uber, Lyft outsourcing their comms infra Lyft’s call center

14% of total revenue = top 10 customer concentration, v 31% (2016)

2m developers, developer-first model: community = sales + marketing
acquire developers like consumers → spend like enterprises

Twilio SIM: 1 SIM number, 1 API, 1 billing relationship, global reach
mass activate/suspend hundreds of SIMs with a few clicks
Microsoft Azure: connect/auth IoT devices to internet w/ Twilio
Lime e-scooters w/ Twilio: 100m rides across 30 countries in 2yrs

$0.4b in R&D, 46% of FTE
$14m acq of automatic speech recognition company Capio (2019)

HOARDERS (ppl)

“There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgement
as to see a friend get rich.” -Charles Kindleberger (1978)

CEOs ($2,729m): salary+bonus+options
$2,300m 🇿🇦🇺🇸 E. Musk - NASDAQ:TSLA   
$125m 🇮🇳🇺🇸 N. Arora - NYSE:PANW
$129m 🇺🇸 D. Zaslav - NASDAQ:DISCA
$108m 🇺🇸 S. Catz - NYSE:ORCL
$67m 🇺🇸 J. Legere - NASDAQ:TMUS

Musicians ($610m): not only touring good points
$185m 🇺🇸 Taylor Swift [29F]
$150m 🇺🇸 Kanye West [42M]
$110m 🇬🇧 Ed Sheeran [28M]
$84m 🇬🇧 Elton John [72M]
$81m 🇺🇸 Beyoncé Knowles [38F]

Athletes ($420m): ex-endorsements
$92m 🇲🇽 Canelo Alvarez 🥊
$92m 🇦🇷 Lionel Messi ⚽ @cristiano
$81m 🇺🇸 Russell Wilson 🏈
$80m 🇺🇸 Aaron Rodgers 🏈
$75m 🇧🇷 Neymar ⚽

Actors ($356m): not only movies
$89m 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Dwayne Johnson [47M]
$76m 🇦🇺 Chris Hemsworth [36M]
$66m 🇺🇸 Robert Downey Jr [54M]
$65m 🇨🇦 Akshay Kumar [52M]
$58m 🇭🇰 Jackie Chan [65M]

Authors ($235m): books + movies rev
$92m 🇬🇧 J.K. Rowling
$70m 🇺🇸 James Patterson
$36m 🇺🇸 Michelle Obama
$20m 🇺🇸 Jeff Kinney
$17m 🇺🇸 Stephen King

Billionaires ($448b): TGP=The Giving Pledge
$125b 🇺🇸 Jeff Bezos Earth fund
$104b 🇺🇸 Bill Gates - TGP
$76b 🇺🇸 Warren Buffet - TGP
$75b 🇫🇷 Bernard Arnault
$67b 🇺🇸 Mark Zuckerberg - TGP

HOARDERS (orgs)

“The banks took the money the American people gave them,
and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses
and lobby the Congress to kill big reform.” -The Big Short (2016)
📙 

Pension funds ($3,365b)
$1,374b 🇯🇵 Govt Pension Invest Fund
$579b 🇺🇸 Fed Ret Thrift Invest Board
$573b 🇰🇷 Ntl Pension Service
$462b 🇳🇱 Ntl Civil Pension Fund
$377b 🇺🇸 California Public Emp

Corporate ($674b): cash+ST+LT invest
$207b 🇺🇸 Apple 
$137b 🇺🇸 Microsoft
$128b 🇺🇸 Berkshire Hathaway
$120b 🇺🇸 Alphabet
$82b 🇨🇳 China Mobile

Religious orgs USA ($215b): estimates no church
$100b Church of JC of Latter-Day St
$70b Catholic Ch (35 Archdioceses)
$25b The United Methodist Church
$14b Southern Baptist Convention
$6b Trinity Church

Foundations ($177b): non-profit
$49b 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk Foundation
$48b 🇺🇸 Bill & Melinda Gates capitalism works!
$39b 🇬🇧 Wellcome Trust
$21b 🇮🇳 Azim Premji Foundation
$20b 🇺🇸 H. Hughes Med Institute

University endowments ($177b): USA Tax exempt hedge funds w/ campuses so true
$50b UTexas
$41b Harvard everyone has a price
$30b Yale
$30b Stanford
$26b Princeton

Private vehicles ($184b): (strategy) smart brothers
$100b 🇬🇧 Softbank Vision Fund (PE) sequoia
$22b 🇺🇸 Global Infra Partners IV (NR)
$21b 🇺🇸 Blackstone IX (RE)
$20b 🇺🇸 Brookfield Infra Fund IV (Infra)
$13b 🇺🇸 GS Mezzanine Part VII (Debt)

HOARDERS (gov't)

“The rules!” shouted Ralph, “you’re breaking the rules!”
“Who cares?” -Lord of the Flies (1954)
📙

GDP ($50t): 2019E, current prices
$22.3t 🇺🇸 USA
$15.3t 🇨🇳 China
$5.4t 🇯🇵 Japan
$4.0t 🇩🇪 Germany
$3.2t 🇮🇳 India

Military power: 0=perfect score FU money
0.0606 🇺🇸 USA
0.0681 🇷🇺 Russia
0.0691 🇨🇳 China
0.0953 🇮🇳 India
0.1501 🇯🇵 Japan

Fiat currencies: avg daily trading (Fx)
$5.8t (88%) 🇺🇸 dollar
$2.1t (32%) 🇪🇺 euro
$1.1t (17%) 🇯🇵 yen
$0.8t (13%) 🇬🇧 pound sterling
$0.5t (7%) 🇦🇺 dollar

SWF ($3.8t): non-pension
$1,009b 🇳🇴 Norway “Oil Fund” SWF they are hiring
$941b 🇨🇳 China Invest Corporation
$696b 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Invest Auth
$592b 🇰🇼 Kuwait Invest Authority
$545b 🇭🇰 HK Monetary Aut Invest

Rich ppl (150k): net worth > $30m
81k 🇺🇸 USA
25k 🇨🇳 China (HK = 9k)
18k 🇯🇵 Japan
16k 🇩🇪 Germany
10k 🇨🇦 Canada

Gold reserves ($1t): @ $1,594/oz
$457b 🇺🇸 USA
$189b 🇩🇪 Germany
$138b 🇮🇹 Italy
$137b 🇫🇷 France
$129b 🇷🇺 Russia

DISRUPTING THE INCUMBENTS

“The battle between every startup and incumbent
comes down to whether the startup gets distribution
before the incumbent gets innovation.” -Alex Rampell (2015)
 follow

SKILLS

“Nobody owes you a career. Manage your career
so that you do not become a casualty.” -Andy Grove (1983)

learn to sell, learn to build. If you can do both → unstoppable

college tuition USA 1978-2018 → 1,375% > 4x over­all inflation future of education

51% of USA adults (2019): college = "very important," vs 70% in 2013
43% of college grads work at jobs that don’t require a degree

>25% of adults *unable* to use a cpu (1.5b people) vs 1b+ illiterate exhibit a: architects
40% of K-12 students in USA have a code.org account

YouTube: full of rewindable (patience = ∞) instructors/teachers
online courses co new valuations: Yuanfudao ($8b), Udemy ($2b)

Lambda School ISA: repay tuition when job salary = $50k/yr flatiron jobs report

70m w/ criminal records (1/3 adults) → pain in finding a job proud investors

57m freelancers (35% USA workforce), 1st time: choice > necessity
$1t/yr = 5% GDP > Construction, $28/hr median *skilled* freelancer

30m gig workers (16% workforce), 1 in 6 workers in org = gig worker really good

1.6m workers on Steady: #1 Grubhub=$1.2k/mo...Target=BestBuy=$1.1k/mo

2m RE agents (1% workforce): $75b/yr in commissions red tape all along

NYC's private offices tenants: 🥇WeWork 🥈JP Morgan 🥉Citigroup

Medium.com writers Feb-2020: #1=$18k, 8% >$100, 66% >$0, $8k=#1story free the stars!

Gumroad creators 2019: 3 >$1m, 106 >$100k, 1.1k >$10k, 5k >$1k

Uber tips: 4m drivers global (Rides + Eats) → $2b/yr

3.2m unemployment claims, vs 0.7m ≈ Oct-1982 ≈ Mar-2009 after covid

DATING

“So, I asked him: What did you search?
And he goes: Jewish and my zip code!” -Aziz Ansari (2015)
📙

dating liquidity & tx volume → efficient pricing → divorce rates drop lol
marriages happening w/ more info than any generation ever must read
18% divorce probability of <35yrs old vs 37% in the >55yrs old household formation 2.0

200m/mo use digital dating services
2 of top 20 apps by iOS revenue: dating

Match Group owns 4 of top 10 dating apps by rev:
Tinder, Pairs, Match.com, Hinge: 9m+ paying users altogether

Tinder: 50m MAU, 6m paying, #1 (non-game) app by global rev 2018+19 you can also chat
male liked 60%+ female profiles, female liked <5% of male profiles

MagicLab ($3b) owns 2 of top 10 apps: Bumble and Badoo
60m Badoo (w/ 470m registered), 80m on Bumble (11m active)

Facebook Dating available in 20 countries not so fast
data-sharing agreements w/ jSwipe+Bumble, others —not Match

15m MAU on ‘compensated dating’ app Seeking Arrangement lower your tuition U of Melbourne
8m sugar babies, 2m sugar daddy/momma

20k girls using MyGirlFund.com, chat/flirt for money

12m registered users on OnlyFans, $300m to its 150k content creator

1/7 kids ages 12-17 = sent a sext (sex+text), +4%/yr ea year of age kids, don’t sext!

20m registered on MindGeek: PornHub, RedTube, YouPorn well done
Pornhub (launched 1mo pre-iPhone): 115m/day visits no worries paypal

ASSISTANTS

“You don’t have a smart speaker.
You have a smart microphone.
There is no intelligence in the speech.
The intelligence is in the listening.” -Horace Dediu (2019)

people speak ~150 words/min vs type ~40 words/min
voice first: easy, intuitive, fast, convenient, natural

75% use voice assistants to access info in the car, 95% by 2022E

77m/mo use voice assistants in cars (USA)
Honda's R&D acquires Drivemode, provides drivers w/ voice-to-text
Garmin launches car navigation Speak, powered by Alexa
Tencent w/ Chang’an Automobile Group: in-car version of WeChat
Amazon w/ ExxonMobil pay for gas via voice command at 12k gas st

5m Sherpa.ai users, 85% 🇪🇸speaking, hires Siri co-founder Tom Gruber microphones not speakers

237m installed smart speakers (157m in USA), 49m sold Q4 2019

84m Amazon's speakers, 16m in Q4 2019 (🥇31% mkt sh), 0.2b devices
$1.4m of $5m target = Alexa revenue from in-skill purchases skills
partners w/ UK’s NHS: basic medical advice for common maladies 48hrs! bye bye red tape

58m Google’s speakers, 13m in Q4 2019 (🥈25% mkt sh), 1.0b devices
Assistant translates and read aloud text on websites, 40+ languages

21m Baidu's speakers, 6m in Q4 2019 (🥉12% mkt sh), 0.4b devices

27m Alibaba’s Tmall Genie, 21m Xiaomi's speakers

50m Microsoft's Xbox → adds Alexa + G Assistant, drops Cortana

Sonos One G2 ($149) compatible w/ Alexa, Siri, G Assistant the price of dx

Facebook Portal ($129) video calling devices, "Hey Portal" + Alexa

COMMUNICATIONS

“A little bit of math can accomplish what all the guns and barbed wire can’t:
a little bit of math can keep a secret” - Edward Snowden (2019)
📙 read now, use Tor

Twitter killed institutional media, source of truth → decentralize happy bday Twitter  everyone has a boss

text messaging → most used data service in the world
WhatsApp=65b/day, WeChat=45b/day, SMS=26b/day

ISDN phase-out → VoIP: 2019🇨🇭 2022🇳🇿🇦🇺🇩🇪 2025🇬🇧 2030🇫🇷 fb lite

top *web content* languages: 🥇🇬🇧=60% 🥈🇷🇺=9% 🥉🇪🇸=4%
most spoken lang (ex 🇨🇳🇮🇳) 🥇🇬🇧=1.1b 🥈🇪🇸=0.5b 🥉🇫🇷=0.3b

423m phone calls where NSA collected metadata in 2018 wtf!
no matter place / time / what you do → your life = open book whisper, but in real life
the content you want + the surveillance you don't in <686 millisec

2016 internet landmark: encrypted web traffic (HTTPS) > unencrypted really really good!
81% today (91% in USA). Let's Encrypt: 1b certificates, 0.2b sites

12m MAU on privacy browser Brave. Mozilla's VPN service @ $5/mo

Firefox Private Network (servers in 30 geos) → WireGuard standard

Tor Foundation individual donations new annual record

BBC/NYT/FB launch dark web version: 🇨🇳🇻🇳 don't allow direct access

Brian Acton (co-founder of WhatsApp) joins Signal Foundation recently audited
EARN IT bill to eliminate protections → E2E encryption unviable

12m DAU on Slack (vs 44m MSFT Teams), 900 customers @ $100k/yr spend leadership 2.0

650 Zoom customers @ $100k annual spend, 400k downloads on 13-march end-to-end

430m MAU on Reddit, #5 visited site USA, 130k active communities truth shall set you free  for visually impaired

AUDIO

“We don’t ask you for free iPhones.
Please don’t ask us to provide you with our music
for no compensation.” -Taylor Swift (2015)

$24b streaming rev > 50% Music industry’s source of revenue

$9b in streaming rev by top 3 labels Vivendi+Sony+Warner up to the courts
Tencent Music acq 10% Universal Music (owned by Vivendi) for $3.4b
Valence Media (owns Billboard) acquires Nielsen Music

$11b music rev (USA 2019), 4th yr of growth, 80% streaming (>1t songs)

$10/mo for 10yrs now: music streaming = commodity = 0 pricing power song remains the same

1% of performers take 60% of all concert-ticket revenue (1982: 26%) attention all bands: ask@pirque.vc

Spotify ($22b): 124m paid sub global, 270m MAU, acq sports podcast app
Kids app: ages 3-12, 6k curated songs + learning/playing playlists
~8% swap w/ Tencent Music ($17b mkt cap, 650m MAU, 40m paying)

Apple Music: 70m paid subs global, 34m in USA > 33m for Spotify
35% iPhone customers → Apple Music subs; 30% → Apple Podcasts subs

55m Amazon Music global subs, growing faster Spotify and Apple Music

77m MAU YouTube Music, videos/audio/lists all in one from $10/mo

India: ByteDance launches Resso, but already 152m MAU on Gaana

SoundCloud: 200m tracks, #1 audio catalogue, SiriusXM → $75m invest ha!
$200m ARR in Q4 2019 = 77%·(creator + listener subs) + 23% ads digital concerts

3b/wk users on terrestrial radio. NPR 2020E: podcasts rev > broadcast

100m/mo podcast users USA: 42% mkt sh Apple, 20% Spotify pg 57

NYT acq Audm: pro actors read long-form journalism for audio content

RIDES

“Energy consumption (cal/g/km) for a bicyclist
is one fifth of that for an unaided walking man.” -Scientific American (1973)

street/sidewalk wars: micromobility → fastest tech adoption in history
37m/yr trips on shared bikes + 39m/yr on shared scooters (USA 2018)

🇩🇰 Copenhagen: 49% trips to work/school → bicycles, vs 6% Portland
25% families w/ 2 children: cargo bike replaces car

e-bikes flatten hills. In 🇨🇳: 700m/rides/day > 2x 300m conventional

5m e-bikes in 🇩🇪 (~10% household), 1.4m e-bikes sold in 2019

Lyft #1 bikeshare operator in N. America: 48k bikes at $0.15/min

113 cities w/ Lime's 🚲+🛴 → 100m rides: 0→50m=18mo, 50m→100m=5mo Usain Bolt

USA drivers in big cities: 99hr/yrs lost to traffic, #1 Boston=149hrs

36% of USA adults have used ride-share services, 15% in 2015
first studies: car traffic ↑, bus rides ↓, specially under 5kms cost of conveniencenbsp; study 2

NYC sets $17.22/hr min wage for ride-hailing drivers medallion bailout
80k ride-hailing drivers vs 20k "yellow-taxi" drivers NYC
cargo-bike pilot: pedal e-vehicles OK to park in comm load spaces

ride-hailing USA: 51% mkt sh for Uber, vs 49% for Lyft

The Boring Co completes excavation of first 2 tunnels in Las Vegas

Hardt Hyperloop: connect Amsterdam to European cities @ ~1,000km/h

16yr old SpaceX: >60% mkt sh, 89 cargo rockets launched

Blue Origin opens new HQ and R&D lab in Kent, WA, total FTE @ 2.5k 

London→Sydney flight: 🏁 distance 17,800km + 🏁 time 19hr19min flying taxis

CREDIT

“This is a Trojan horse of epic proportions.
And the US consumer will easily be co-opted.” -Josh Wolfe (2018)

1.7b remain unbanked (17%), 50% in 🇧🇩🇨🇳🇮🇳🇮🇩🇲🇽🇳🇬🇵🇰 untapped mkt!

when cash tx <7% → cash mgmt cost > mg profit on that cash sale e-krona
🥇🇳🇴=11% vs 🇺🇸=26%, the leading pack: 🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇬🇧🇳🇱

Visa + Mastercard + Amex > 96% mkt sh, avg fee: 3.61%/tx
USA poor: 10% of income = fees+tx costs = spent on food = $140b/yr message:payments

ever-changing, fragmented, highly competitive *payments* landscape no winner takes all

Apple Pay: 440m users, 5% card tx. 🥇🇺🇸=30m users, 70% retail accepts

PayPal: 0.3b accts, 24m merchants, $10b in loans, 52m Venmo App users ouch

Square: 90m profiles, 24k shops, $6b in loans, 24m Cash App users nice roadmap SQ bank 2021

Stripe: live in 37 countries supports WeChat, Alipay, Apple Pay really good
Stripe Capital = biz loans. w/ WordPress.com → recurring payments

Adyen: 100m biz, including McDonald’s, Domino’s Pizza, Uber

Amazon+GSachs: loans to SME. Amazon Lending $0.9b since 2011

1b AliPay users, 0.8b TenPay(WeChat), 0.2b Du Xiaoman Pay (ex-Baidu)
Alipay+TransferWise send remittances using recipient’s Alipay ID 1% of Klarna
WeChat Pay supports overseas Visa/MasterCard/AmEx/JCB/Discover

31% global adult pop w/ credit scores
78% in USA: 400 credit agencies, 200m FICO scores yes, more

50m users crypto today, decentralized ID → reputation scores for 5b? digital id

$0.7b AUM by BlockFi, loans guaranteed by bitcoin and ethereum bitcoin collateral

COMMERCE

“World’s largest company by sales (Walmart)
is now the perceived underdog.” -The Economist (2017)

everything the internet did to media is happening to retail
Dixons Carphone close 531 brick-and-mortar stores, cuts 2.9k jobs
Bose closes *all* brick-and-mortar 🇺🇸+🇨🇦+🇬🇧+🇪🇺+🇯🇵+🇦🇺 = 119 stores 500 and counting

Craigslist (1995): $1b/yr, FTE=30, owners=2, bought back eBay’s 25%

Kylie Beauty (2014): $0.2b/yr, FTE=12, mktg=@kyliejenner, 51% @ $0.6b

Shopify: 1m merchants, 175 geos, $60b GMV, $1.5m/s BF+CM global sales go crypto

consumer goods (ex content) ARPU/yr: 🥇🇰🇷=$1.4k 🥈🇺🇸=$1.4k 🥉🇬🇧=$1.3k aint waiting
e-commerce readiness index 2019: #1🇳🇱...#5🇬🇧...#13🇺🇸...#19🇰🇷 volume 2 of 7

China 2019: $1.5t online sales, 25% of retail sales, 80% mobile
vs USA: $0.6t online sales, 13% of retail sales, 32% mobile

$38b GMV Alibaba Singles Day: $1b→68sec, $13b→1hr, 90% mobile
USA: $9.4b Cyber Monday + $7.4b Black Friday = $16.8b = 44% Alibaba pgs 27-31

Apple App Store: $55b/yr rev, $100 in-app spending per active iPhone yes!!! we're all in
Google Play: $29b/yr rev, $30 in-app spending per active device

WhatsApp for Business adds catalogues to enable mobile commerce

USA e-commerce is still in its infancy: still day one
Domino’s Pizza AOV: $18→$30 w/ online ordering, stock 50x in 10yrs
Target: 3.2k in-house software engineers, $0.6b acq of Shipt (2017)
Walmart: 1.6k stores w/ grocery delivery, new Walmart+ membership

44m use food deliv apps (USA 2019): ~26%≈DoorDash≈Grubhub≈UberEats covid

DECEPTION

“Fraud is not a trade secret.” -Tyler Shultz (2016)

$300b+ digital ad industry (68% mobile), USA: Google/Facebook @ 61% waiting to happen

$72b spent on the lottery (USA 2017), $220/yr/adult

Amazon marketplace sellers mislabel: FDA approved, UL certified, ...

40% Scotch whisky "not as old as ad", scientists determined true age

police raids Porsche's offices again → evidence for Dieselgate
11m VW cars exceeded pollution limits + deceived emissions tests

Swiss firm Crypto AG covertly owned by CIA + West German intel READ, fascinating
8 decades selling encryption devices to "communicate—secretly"

fines for sharing user's data: $91m T-Mobile, $57m AT&T, $48m Verizon

85% of global email messages = spam. 45% of USA mobile calls = spam classic

black PR disinformation services create/spread false content no shit
use: automation, fake accounts, AI, manual labor

15% of USA men 50-64yrs → dye their hair, 50%+ of USA women >25yrs hairless sapiens
40% of those → blonde. Naturally genetic blonde rate: ~2%

36m users and 20k surgeons on plastic surgery app GengMei
China catching up USA in total cosmetic procedures performed

KIDS Act regulate apps design, ads, and harmful content for <16yrs good report

reproducible research = paper + full source code + data to recreate re ToS

end of ads: BInsider, The Information, Politico turned profits in 2019
NYT digital-only subs from $15/mo → $17/mo, first time since 2011

TV

“For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain,
there can be no mercy…hunt or be hunted.” -Francis Underwood (2014)

2010: 9 in 10 USA homes were pay-tv subs, but NPS score < 0

2019: 3 in 4 USA homes subs to streaming video on demand metrics

2020E $ for originals: $17b NTFX, $6b AMZN≈AAPL, $3b HBO≈DIS, $1b FB
USA cord-cutting growing faster than e-commerce (2018 surpassed) pg 38, also the entire ppt

Netflix (Oscars=8 Emmys=43): 168m paid subs, #4 non-game app by rev NTFX 101
original shows+movies outperformed licensed content in 2019
USA subs price $9/mo, now in India $3/mo → aiming for 100m subs

2019 USA box office: 🥇Disney=40% 🥈Warner=16% 🥉Universal=15% ouch

29m subs Disney+ (live Nov-12), $7/mo or $13/mo w/ ESPN+ Hulu
catalog: Disney/Pixar/Marvel/StarWars/NatGeo
30m downloads, #1 app USA Q4 2019 (2x TikTok), #2 global pgs 51-55
86m ESPN cable → 7m ESPN+ @ $5/mo. Hulu: 30m USA subs
Disney-owned Hotstar🇮🇳: 400m subs, 6m paying, library≈Netlflix

Amazon (Oscars=3 Emmys=15): #1 title library > 3x Netflix, > 4x Hulu
38m/mo active viewers on Twitch #1 live-stream platform the war for “live”

Apple TV+ live in 100 markets: 🇺🇸$5/mo, 🇬🇧£5/mo, 🇪🇺€5/mo
original "The Morning Show" wins first Screen Actor's Guild award
5yr deal w/ R.Plepler (HBO) → original series/movies/documentaries

140m HBO subs, 8m HBO Now subs (USA). AT&T TV launches in 15 markets

2m YouTube TV subs, $50/mo cable-free live TV from 70 networks kids