Stats Q4 2019
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“Competing without software is like competing without electricity.” -Naval Ravikant (2016)

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DRIVERS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

“The great lesson in microeconomics
is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you
and when it’s going to kill you.” -Charlie Munger (1994)

PLATFORMS

“The smartphone is the sun
and everything else orbits it.” -Ben Evans (2015)

7.8b world population, 5.8b adults → age >15yrs (74%)

8.1b mobile connections, SIM cards (104%)
5.2b unique mobile phone users (67%)

6.9b w/ electric power (89%), <1b to go!

5.8b w/ access to working/adequate toilets (74%) time spent searching for safe toilets = 🇩🇪 workforce

5.6b TV users (72%)

3.6b unique smartphone users (48%), shipments to grow in 2020 v1 in 1994
~1.1b Chinese Android, ~1.0b Android, ~0.9b iPhones

Q3 2019 sales (units): 🥇Samsung 🥈Huawei 🥉Apple
Huawei: Android forced fork → new OS war?
100m devices using KaiOS, now 3rd mobile OS after Android and iOS
Xiaomi: #1 in India (27% mkt sh) for the last 8 qtrs go realme

1.5b cars (19%), of which EV = 0.5%
car ownership is rising, not declining, on track to 2b

1.2b PCs (15%) = 1.1b Windows, 0.2b Mac + Linux
47% of new PC sales (Q3 2019) = Lenovo + HP

473m tablets (6.1%)

188m smart speakers (2.4%), 76m in USA (1 per household)
outpacing adoption rates of smartphones

163m smart watches (2.1%), 53m in USA

THE REAL U. N.

“No nation imagines itself
coterminous with mankind.” -Benedict Anderson (1983)
📙

Security Council’s permanent members:
2.5b Facebook (32%)
2.4b Christianity (31%)
1.9b Islam (25%)
1.5b WhatsApp (19%)
1.4b China (19%)

Security Council’s non-permanent members: 
1.4b India (18%)
1.2b Hinduism (15%)
1.2b WeChat (15%)
1.0b Instagram (13%)
730m QQ (9.4%)
625m TikTok (8.1%)
500m Sina Weibo (6.4%)
445m European Union ex UK (5.7%)
330m Twitter (4.3%)
330m USA (4.3%)

Not represented in the General Assembly:
1.2b non-religious, aka “humanists” (15%)
1.0b people with no legal identification (13%)

INTERNET

“If your big policy idea boils down to restoring the pre-internet status quo,
it is not going to work.” -Balaji S. Srinivasan (2019)

4.5b active internet users (58% of world pop) really cool (aka nerdy)
4.1b active *mobile* internet users (91% of internet users)
37% of all mobile internet traffic = YouTube

separate *mobile* internets: 🇨🇳=850m 🇮🇳=640m 🇪🇺=300m 🇺🇸=270m SE Asia
≠ rights: 🇨🇳splinternet 🇮🇳PDPA/Aadhaar 🇪🇺GDPR/ePrivacy 🇺🇸CCPA runet

3.9b email users (88%), 3.7b active social media users (83%)

Wordpress ($3b) powers 35% of the *entire* internet its only the beginning
porn traffic ~10%, 430m MAU on Reddit (the internet's front page)

avg d/l speed Mbps: 31=mobile (112=🇰🇷5G), 72=fixed broadband (130=🇺🇸)
41% countries: mobile downloads faster than Wi-Fi

160m Americans don't use broadband, Sen Sanders $150b → public utility 
83% broadband adoption on avg state (2017), vs 72% in 2013

3G coverage=95%, LTE=75%, 5G rollout begins (🧨 IoT revolution) industry reports
🇪🇺Vodafone=102 cities, 🇺🇸Verizon=28 cities, 🇩🇪D-Telekom=8

2.2k satellites (comms + obs): 🇺🇸=1k(45%) 🇨🇳=323(15%) 🇷🇺=164(7.4%)

satellite-based broadband constellations ("fiber" anywhere on Earth) 
SpaceX's Starlink: 60/12k (30k additional request to the FCC)
OneWeb: 6/648, Telesat: 0/300 (🚀 by Blue Origin), Amazon: 0/3.2k

~10% of internet data on surface web (indexed by search engines)
~90% on deep web (not indexed), fastest growing data📝 no joke

CLOUD

“Computing big bangs = cloud (AWS, 2006) +
consumer mobile (iPhone, 2007).” -Mary Meeker (2018)
 her bible v2019

ppl/biz → “march to the cloud”, storage at ~30% (50% 2025E) to pass:
consumer devices (35% 2020E), traditional data centers (40% 2021E)
Amazon’s AWS to build VW industrial cloud: data from 122 factories
Microsoft's Azure to move AT&T's non-networking infra to the cloud

$0.9t cloud mkt cap (75 companies) vs 2010: < $0.1t (20 co)📝
median public SaaS company trades at 8x revs on 17% growth read and learn

30m Raspberry Pi sold, #3 best-selling general purpose cpu🍓

Google's 'Sycamore' quantum cpu performs calculation in 200s, vs 
10k years by world's fastest supercomputer 
IBM says non-quantum could perform in 2.5 days w/ greater fidelity 

$0.022/GB cost of cloud storage (2020), vs $4.4k/GB in 1990 

Swiss researchers store DNA-encoded data into silica glass spheres

$0.05 cost of 1m transistors (2013) vs $527 in 1990
Moore's law still in effect, but chip-specialization driving prices

semiconductor co's racing to develop adv chips: 5G, AI, SDV, Robots
Qualcomm announces Snapdragon 8c chips: improved for AI, gaming

next-gen AI microchips funded by DARPA: keep USA ahead of China 

Google Drive: 5m paying users (1b total). Box ($2.5b): 13m (65m)

Dropbox ($7.4b): 14m paying users (600m total)
fastest SaaS company to $1b/yr recurring revenues (🏁=8.3 yrs)

BLOCKCHAIN

"What if this technology could do for the transfer of value,
what the internet did for the transfer of information?" -Abigail Johnson (2017)

every single asset in the world will be tokenized decade ahead
Philly FED: “inevitable” that central banks issue digital currency watch video

$190b network value of all 5k altcoins/tokens
9 crypto-assets w/ network value > $1b

crypto exchanges by *verified* BTC ADTV: 🥇Binance 🥈Bitfinex 🥉kraken

Coinbase: 30m users in ~40 countries, insured accounts
#1 crypto-custodian for institutions: $7b AUM, 120 clients

🇺🇸🇬🇧🇨🇦 endowments exposed to crypto invest., surveys range: 22%-94%

adoption: 🇸🇪 RE registrar, 🇨🇦 grants, 🇪🇪 digital ID, 🇳🇿 legal tender

Bank of England's synthetic hegemonic currency → "end" USD dominance evolution

People’s Bank of China digital yuan: prototype ✔️, imminent launch
being tested in Shenzhen + Suzhou
new crypto law 1-Jan-2020, Xi Jinping: "foundation for innovation" 

SEC halts Telegram's $1.7b ICO, digital ↛ avoid Fed securities laws 
Delaware: mandatory shareholder’s list → OK on a blockchain
top awarded patents: 🥇IBM 🥈Accenture 🥉Mastercard📝 2014-2019

JP Morgan + 365 banks = ETH-based blockchain to settle payments

$20b of HSBC assets → blockchain-based custody network "Digital Vault"

5-10% interest on crypto backed loans: BlockFi, Binance, Compound
open lending protocols so anyone can earn interest on their money

MACHINE LEARNING

“The highest forms of understanding we can achieve
are laughter and human compassion.” -Richard Feynman (1988)

underlying point is machine learning means computers can 'see' elon, needs no introduction

cpu power for AI training: 2x every 3.5mo, vs 18mo for Moore’s Law
100 co designing custom chips for deep learning acceleration

reading comp w/ unanswerable questions: humans score = 86.83
🥇PINGAN🇨🇳=90.00 🥈Google+Toyota🇺🇸=89.73 🥉PINGAN🇨🇳=88.59 read now

OpenAI releases AI-powered text generation system: GPT-2 

AlphaZero becomes world’s best Chess, Go, and Shogi player 
starts from blank slate, no historical data, except game rules

combinations of ingredients to form metallic glass:
scientists found 6k in 50yrs, vs ML → 20k in 1yr

medical research/knowledge: 2x every 70 days via deep learning
2x every 3.5yrs (2010), 2x every 50yrs (1950)

3m scientific abstracts (1922-18) analyzed: insights to new materials

DL accuracy 26 skin conditions ≈ USA board-certified dermatologists

Paige.ai's "breakthrough" diagnoses prostate/skin/breast cancer > 98%

DeepMind (GoogleHealth) acute kidney injuries accuracy > 90% oops

770m surveillance cameras installed globally, 1b by 2021E (🇨🇳=50%) don’t go to China
camera to people: 🇺🇸1:4.6 🇨🇳1:4.1📝 weapons for the XXI century
🇮🇳 #1 biometric id DB: citizens’ irises + fingerprints + photos france  uk

deepfake "fakes": cpu generated ppl, porn videos, impersonification

ROBOTS

“Drones will be as ubiquitous as sprinklers.” -Chris Anderson (2017)

2.5m industrial robots 2018, installed base growing 17% YoY
robots per 10k employee: 🥇🇸🇬=830 🥈🇰🇷=775 🥉🇩🇪=340…🌎=99

Boston Dynamic's four-legged Spot robot in use by MA State Police boston dynamic's decade

30 nations w/ defensive SD weapons: engagement speed > human not a children's book

SD-airplane Zipline: 128km/h speed, 160km range, 1.75kg cargo capacity 1-800-DRONES

1.3m hobbyist drone fleet (USA, 2018), 900k registered owner-hobbyists
0.3m commercial drone fleet (USA, 2018), 116k certified pilots RAF 2.0

Chinese drones rule the sky, DJI has ~77% mkt sh, latest for $500 

smartphones killed the Japanese cameras, but high-end lens ↑ video killed the radio star
Caltech world’s fastest camera, 1012 fps captures traveling light

LiDAR "Moore's law": every 18mo → sensor resolution 2x, price 1/2x archeological disruption
$4k for Puck VLP-16, Velodyne’s cheapest LiDAR 

Waymo to sell in-house LiDAR “Laser Bear Honeycomb” for $7.5k
launches Open Dataset, 1k 20s clips of sync camera+LiDAR data
Waymo (1k FTE): 10b miles in simulation, but 10m on real roads

CA DMV issues SD permits to 65 carmakers, 10k pounds trucks to come 
Silicon Valley: 2m autonomous miles logged in 2018
Mobileye: 30 *billion* miles of real-world testing required

15% of Earth’s seafloor mapped (100% goal → 2030)  the new wild west
Saildrone charges $2.5k/day/drone to collect ocean data

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

“Mr. Musk—who is 45 years old, the same age as Mr. Ford was in 1908
when he released the Model T.” -WSJ (2017)

7.5m EVs currently on the road, plus 0.5m e-buses
EV fleet: 🥇🇨🇳=3.7m 🥈🇪🇺=1.7m 🥉🇺🇸=1.4m

2019 sales: 🇨🇳=1m 🇺🇸=250k 🌎=1.9m
best-seller race: 537k Tesla Model 3 > ~450k Nissan Leaf

EVs to public charging st: 🇨🇳8:1 🇪🇺9:1 🇺🇸18:1 (ChargePoint @ 107k)

top 10 economies non-EV cars “announcements”: 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇧🇷→😴 
🇨🇳20%→'25, 🇩🇪10m→'30, 🇮🇳30%→'30, 🇫🇷🇬🇧100%→'40, 🇮🇹1m→'22, 🇨🇦10%→'25 da bundeskanzlerin

🇳🇴 (#1 EV per capita) 100%→2025. 2019 sales = 42% all-electric

California ($7k subsidy) Q3 2019 sales = 14% zero emission vehicles

Volvo announces XC40 Recharge, Ford unveils Mustang Mach-E easier said than done

NIO 3Q sales 4.8k EVs (+33% QoQ), Mobileye partnership → self-driving

Porsche drops diesel, $7b by 2025 to electrify *entire* lineup what happens when elon comes to play

VW: $66b e-plan, EV-only plant in China → the [Chinese] people’s car
Electrify America: 2k chargers, 380 stations, $500 home charger

$156/kWh avg Lithium-ion battery pack price, down 85% since 2010
VW claims they pay <$100/kWh, consensus for $100 "threshold" → 2023

EU: $3.5b for battery R&D, stimulus could add $5b from private co father battery

car maintenance for conventional vehicles = 2.3x EV

600k e-bikes sold by Giant (#1 bicycle company) in 2019, +20% YoY

Harbour Air (#1 seaplane airline) to electrify entire fleet by 2022

CAPITAL

"Sorry, are you gonna give us the money
or not?" -Cameron Howe (1985)
 Go Mutiny

USA: 5.9m biz (1-499 FTE), 19.5k (500+ FTE), newco? → Stripe + Carta sorry lawyers
12k co w/ mkt cap > $300m, 11k co w/ mkt cap < $300m

7k listed co NYSE+NASDAQ → $50t mkt cap
57% of Fortune 500 co in 2000 → not F500 anymore, only 60 since 1955
Europe is dead: 4 companies among world's top 40 (10 in 2010) v2019

top 5 co by mkt cap: hq=🇺🇸, exchange=USA, comp adv=tech/invest in memoriam ego boost ;)
S&P500 mkt cap: Σ top 5 ≈ 16% ≈ Σ bottom 218 = $4.9 *trillion*
$2t cash + cash eq held by non-financial USA corp biz

2011-19 USA co fundraising: private mkt > public mkt, 1H 2019 → 5:1 data > opinion
SEC to update Accredited Investor definition → increase access 

$83b by USA VCs (1Q-3Q 2019) 4.2k deals, vs $220b & 9.1k global VC
10 states w/ $b+ VC ecosystem 2019E: 🥇CA=$60b 🥈NY=$16b 🥉MA=$9b

$170b+ in underpriced IPO (1980-2019) → direct listing, 🖕 Wall St   round 1: lobby 1 - transparency 0

Long Term Stock Ex: USA's 5th nat sec exchange, HQ=San Francisco

$54b in P2P loans to 4.3m borrowers issued by LendingClub

$15b raised by 2.1k tokens via Initial Coin Offerings

$4.7b pledged to 176k project via Kickstarter

$3.1b in grants to 5.6k awards through main USA fed agencies (2018)

$1.0b passed to 100k creators using Patreon

$1.2b in rev-share funding to 1k companies by Clearbanc

SKILLS

“Nobody owes you a career. Manage your career
so that you do not become a casualty.” -Andy Grove (1983)

learn to sell, learn to build. If you can do both → unstoppable

college tuition USA 1978-2018 → 1,375% > 4x over­all inflation old school still works

51% of USA adults (2019): college = "very important," vs 70% in 2013 
Lambda School applications 2019 > 1.5x Harvard 21-feb
50% of Apple’s USA employment 2018: people w/o 4yrs degree
43% of college grads work at jobs that don’t require a degree top 15 emerging jobs

Amazon hiring: *all* positions require some technical skills
$0.7b budget by Amazon: retrain 100k workers into tech roles by 2025

>25% of adults *unable* to use a cpu (1.4b people) vs 1b+ illiterate
Medium.com writers: 69%>$0, 8%>$100, #1>$22k, $7k+ best single story
$160k avg made by Substack’s 12 top-earning writers
40% of K-12 students in USA have a code.org account

57m freelancers (35% USA workforce), 1st time: choice > necessity 
$1t/yr = 5% GDP > Construction, $28/hr median *skilled* freelancer good slides

WeWork: #1 tenant in NYC w/ 0.8m sq mt, #2 JP Morgan
5G to allow "real-time" virtual working, office physical work?

16% of USA labor force (30m) = gig workers vs 3.6m cashier jobs
CA bill AB-5 'gig economy' 1/1/2020: contractors → employees 
$2b/yr Uber tips: drivers + delivery (4m+). Uber Works launched 1 app, all jobs

USA labor mkt: 0.8 unemployed per 1 job opening (7m+ job openings) the tricky "average"

WINNERS TAKE ALL

“You call it monopoly, I call it enterprise.” -John D. Rockefeller (1911)

CHINA

($15,270b economy)
“The American dream is alive. In China.” -NYTimes (2018)

1978 (43yrs) capitalism=illegal, entrepreneurship → death sentence mkt sh
China ’09 → #1 Exporter, ’13 → #1 Trader, ’17 → #1 Shipping+Ports one ring to rule them all

Silicon Valley (10x innovation) terrified of China (20x), Europe (1x) 

AI startups: 🇨🇳=$17b in investment ($34m/startup) > 2x 🇺🇸
🇨🇳: automation, oil/gas, facial recog, edtech, AV, mental health AI made in China

China R&D spending growing 4x faster than USA, currently at:
🇨🇳 $370b (2.0% of GDP) vs 🇺🇸 $475b (2.7% of GDP)

$0.9t new silk rd investments eat EU 🇬🇧🇨🇭🇩🇪 + EMkts 🇧🇷🇵🇰🇳🇬, 🇺🇸<10% 

USA semiconductor companies “holding the fort” → ⏳?   the battle for formosa
$29b new national semiconductor fund → close tech gap with USA 
Samsung's Chinese semiconductor factory, $7b (2017) + $8b (2020)

BeiDou Navigation Satellite System to rival USA's GPS new world order, from scratch
70% Chinese smartphones work: Southeast Asia, E. Europe, Africa  1 heart, 1 SIM

open source software not subject to US trade restrictions
GitHub likely establish a fully-owned Chinese subsidiary

Huawei's USA R&D team: 600 FTE → 250, moving to Canada brain drain

US Senate: "agencies didn't prevent China paying researchers for IP"

#1 unicorn: Ant Financial $150b > 2.3x SpaceX
“9-9-6” schedule of Chinese tech employee: 9am-9pm, 6 day/wk
~400 global unicorns: 🇺🇸=197 v 🇨🇳=98. Decacorns: 🇺🇸=11 v 🇨🇳=6

BITCOIN

($130b network cap)
“We have elected to put our money and faith
in a mathematical framework that is free
of politics and human error.” -Tyler Winklevoss (2013)

first digital/unforgeable/scarce commodity in world history
2010-2020 best investments: 🥇bitcoin: +8,990,000% 🥈...

single most mispriced risk in entire financial system #BlackSwan
"no chance hyperinflation could happen to the US dollar" a rejection in 112pgs

people understanding how bitcoin works > Federal Reserve works reputation is everything
Bitcoin → show truth (open source). Central banking → hide truth btc for dummies

stock-to-flow model shows statistical significance w/ BTC mkt value live chart
gold and silver also in line with the model

1 BTC > 4.6x Gold oz, bitcoin overtook gold in Mar-2017

11yrs old BTC: 18.2m circulating (86%), 2.8m to mine @ $7.1k
8.5% of all bitcoin wallets hold 99% of the 18m 

6%+ of Americans own BTC (0.4% global) → Fidelity rolls out custody
1995 internet penetration = 0.4% (60% in 2019) fascinating

51% attack cost: $20b in hardware, $14m/day in elec consumption
strongest computing network in the world = bitcoin 
attacked 1k/x/day, impenetrable for 11+ yrs 

$1b+ in cumulative fee revenues (miners securing the network) 📝 in the beggining

bitcoin’s “electricity-hungry” consumption ≈ 0.32% world ≈ 🇦🇹 ⛏️⛏️⛏️

<0.1% avg price deviation (1 exchange vs aggregate top 10 exchanges)
6k bitcoin ATMs worldwide, arbitrage is *almost* over

APPLE

($1,305b mkt cap)
“Just the way he advertised: Jesus, Gandhi, Me!” -Bill Burr (2012)

$206b cash on balance sheet > New Zealand's GDP

2.4b devices sold, 1.6b active (0.9b = iPhones)
64% of Americans own an Apple product, 365m iMessage MAU (global)

dx channel: Google pays $12.2b/yr → default search eng on iOS devices

F500 boardrooms wanted *their* iPads to work on the corp network
100% of Fortune 500 companies now use Apple devices
150k+ customers are using Apple's enterprise device mgmt software

iPhone: #1 product of all times, 1.7b cumulative sold (since Q2 '07) 
#1 signal of USA wealth, $750+ avg price vs $260+ for Android)
51% mkt sh in India's *premium* smartphone market

By rev: iPhone >> Services > 2x Mac > Mac ≈ Wearables > iPad  product-market fit

30m wearables (Apple Watch + AirPods) shipped Q3 (3x QoQ), 35% mkt sh

AirPods → fastest growing product, 60m sold 2019E, 90m+ since launch
$25b revenue in FY2019 > Macy's revenue 

85m Apple Watch sold cumulatively, sell 2m/mo = 1.4x Σ 🇨🇭 watchmakers

iPad = 89% of tablets >$200 in USA, 31% global mkt sh (Q3 2019)

$40b in service revenues (incl App Store) 1Q-3Q 2019, + $2b/yr in ads  a little side project

$22b in R&D in 2019E 
500m devices w/ Siri, 300 open positions @ Siri division
Project Titan: 70 SD-cars, 150 drivers, Tesla VP of Eng → Apple

MICROSOFT

($1,203b mkt cap)
"The greatest mistake ever
is whatever caused Microsoft not to be what Android is.
What's that worth? $400b." -Bill Gates (2019)
 big miss

86% mkt sh in desktop operating system
1.6b/day Windows devices (installed base), 900m on v10 alone

1.2b/day Office users, #1 productivity service, #1 SaaS product
235m Office 365 subs > Σ Spotify + Amazon Prime, paying ~$99/yr
200m commercial subs, 35m consumer subs

>1b Android devices w/ Word, Excel, PPoint, OneDrive, Skype installed #1 distributed ledger?
400m Outlook users (100m mobile), 300m Skype users, 80m SlideShare

20m DAU on Teams (500k orgs), $MSFT fastest-growing biz app ever
Teams for Linux in public preview; 1st *open source* Office app 

19% mkt sh in cloud computing infra w/ Azure
17 consecutive qtrs at >60% QoQ rev growth
Azure to build AT&T, Daimler, Walmart, Walgreen's “cloud factory”
Salesforce to transition its Marketing Cloud to Microsoft's Azure

$27b for LinkedIn (2016): 660m profiles, 310m MAU, 30m companies
profiles data integration: eg Word → resume assistance

$7.5b for GitHub (2018): 40m developers

110m/mo active Minecraft players, 65m/mo Xbox Live users

$18b spent in R&D (2019E)
$1b committed to OpenAI (nonprofit AI research)
samples cashier-less technology to Walmart and other retailers

AMAZON

($916b mkt cap)
“If Amazon is in your line of business: Sell now.
If Amazon is not in your line of business:
Sell now; your business sucks.” -@GSElevator (2017)

#1 company by R&D spending: $35b in 2019E, vs $29b in 2018 
$1b to expand Prime one-day delivery service 

#1 e-retailer USA: 37% mkt sh (8x Walmart), 4% of *all* USA retail📝 2x, why not
58% units sold = 3rd-party: 1,200k SKUs, vs 120k Walmart, 4k Costco 
Apple to sell directly on Amazon (iPhones, iPads, and Apple Watches)
Lady Gaga's new line of cosmetics: exclusively on Amazon

105m prime members >Costco: $1.4k/yr prime member vs $1k non-prime

#1 fulfillment co: 42 planes, 6k trailers, 130k e-vans (2030)
carries 45% of own USA shipments, bldg own air traffic mgmt system 

#1 cloud infrastructure provider: AWS=33% mkt sh 
$25b in Q1-Q3 2019 rev > Σ cloud (MSFT+GOOG+IBM+BABA)

#1 smart speaker USA: 55% mkt sh, 70m Echo’s sold (10m in Q3)
1k/s Echo Dot on CyberMonday, 10k people working on Alexa 

#1 ebook seller USA: 83% mkt sh, audible.com $ > Σ 1-5 NYC publishers

#2 online grocery USA: 29% mkt sh vs Walmart=37%

#2 largest private employer in USA by FTE (#1 Walmart)
100k warehouse robots “employed”, 1:3 warehouse employees
avg Go store: $1.5m/yr ≈ 150% convenience store w/ cashiers 

#3 in ads (10% mkt sh): $2b/qtr business (heads-up Google/Facebook)
>50% of *product* searches start/end on amazon.com vs <50% Google 

FACEBOOK

($585b mkt cap)
“If you’re offered a seat on a rocket ship,
don’t ask what seat! Just get on.” -Sheryl Sandberg (2012)

2.8b used at least one Facebook-family app per mo, 2.2b daily 
#1 mobile platform by marketer’s budget spent, ahead of Google
65%+ mobile social traffic, 23% digital ad USA revenue
140m biz profiles, 7m MAU advertisers (3m use FB+IG+Messenger)

100b/day messages (5x peak global SMS), 1b Stories
Stories Click-to-Messenger: biz grab's attention → conversation

Facebook: 2.5b MAU, 1.6b DAU, majority of searches → people

Messenger: 1.3b MAU, 40m biz, 20b/mo biz-ppl messages, 300k/mo bots
goal: never dial a 1-800 again, 40% prefer live chat vs call 

WhatsApp: 1.5b MAU, 1b DAU
click-to-chat button on website → message a business
Business API → biz respond using WhatsApp (Uber✔️)

Instagram: 1b MAU, 25m biz-specific profiles (2m MAU using Stories)
>90% users are following a biz, 130m/mo users tap on a shopping ad
testing Scenes: users compose 15s videos + music/audio

blockchain subsidiary Calibra led by D. Marcus (ex $PYPL), 100 FTE

3m paid users on enterprise platform Workplace, up 1m in 8 months

$13b R&D in 2019E, $11m for 1min ad on Super Bowl 2020 → FB Groups
purchased 80+ companies (last 15yrs), passed on Musical.ly c 2016 to buy or to copy/paste
NPE (New Product Exp.) team: podcasts, travel, newsletters tools FB, a publicly listed VC

TENCENT

($459b mkt cap)
“Ideas are not important in China –execution is.” -Pony Ma (2011)

largest games company in the world: by revenue and users
#1 by 🇨🇳 users: League of Legends (PC) + Honor of Kings (mobile)
400m/mo PUBG Mobile players (50m DAU) > 250m from Fortnite

100m downloads on 1st week by "Call of Duty: Mobile"

Nintendo + Tencent (titles + cloud) = Switch console in China

#1 smartphone community (China): 1.2b+ MAU on WeChat & Weixin a-list
WeChat = the OS for the entire Chinese economy from chat app to super app
ecosystem: 1m mini apps w/ 300m DAU, vs 2m+ apps Apple App Store

TencentVideo >100m subs, #4 video app by rev 2010-2019

#1 mobile payment platform (China): 0.8b MAU, 1b/tx/day
100m users on wealth mgmt platform LiCaiTong: $86b AUM

Hong Kong Monetary Authority grants blockchain bank license
Tencent owns 12% of investment bank China Intl Capital Corp (CICC)

Tencent's fintech biz: if stand alone → 🇨🇳 #4 largest public co money, money, money, always sunny

active investment portfolio of 700 co: 120+ unicorns, 60+ IPOs china✔️, india✔️
$4.5b → DiDi, $1.8b → Tesla, $1.4b → Flipkart, $150m → Reddit

108 investments in 2019: $3.9b into startups = 14% all 🇨🇳 startups mmm

Prosus (Nasper's arm owns 31% Tencent) IPOs on Euronext Amsterdam

$4b in R&D (2019E), cloud infra revenues 2x in 2018, reach $1.3b
BMW + Tencent: autonomous driving, connectivity, electrification

TESLA

($75b mkt cap)
“Musk has made every Tesla customer a venture capitalist.” -Steve LeVine (2016)

most valuable USA car maker: Tesla = 1.5x GM = 2.1x Ford
Tesla’s FTEs = 23% GM, = 21% Ford the beauty of vertical integration

best car ownership experience
buy online + over-the-air *software* updates
NHTSA gives five-star safety ratings in all categories to S,X,3 
autopilot w/ “summon”, voice commands, driver profiles, dog-mode Tesla console?

367k vehicles delivered in 2019, 105k in Q4 2019 (ATH) → ~9k/week 
Shanghai plant @ 1k/wk (10k/wk goal) 🇨🇳 36 stores + 300 charging st
Gigafactory 4: 300ha in Berlin → batteries/powertrains, 500k/yr american EVs, made by Germans

Model S @ $80k, 597km range (WR any EV) #1 by mkt sh (37% USA)

Model 3 @ $39k, 515km range, 0-60mph in 3.2s, 260km/h top speed
#1 passenger vehicle in CA. IIHS: top marks
#1 selling-vehicle in Norway + Netherlands. Euro NCAP: 5★ rating electric dutch

Model X @ $85k, 525km range (WR any electric SUV), #2 by mkt sh

Model Y (2020E) @ $48k, “roomier” model 3 crossover

Roadster 2G, 0-60mph in 1.9s, reservations at $50k

Semi truck: 2k pre-paid reservations at $20k, total $150k

$1b R&D 2019E: 200k+ Cybertruck pre-orders, production late 2022 face value?
proprietary data + chips + footage + GPS = new products eg. insurance
V3 Supercharger: 1.5k/cars/day, Megapack: 3 MWh utility-scale battery

TWILIO

($13b mkt cap)
“Connecting large volumes of cellular connected IoT devices
is still too difficult for customers.” -Sam George (2019)

#1 *programmable* telecom platform: messaging, voice, video, email
real time telecom infra w/o geo boundaries + software like margins

$4t global IT budget: 40% communications vs 10% software, 5% cloud

roadmap: 2008 voice, 2010 SMS, 2015 video/chat, 2019 email, 2020...
$2.7b acq SendGrid: #1 email and marketing API platform
SendGrid sends email to >50% of *global* email addresses

172k active customer accounts, up from 34k (2016)
small customers: notify a diner when a table is ready
large customers: power entire omni-channel contact centers

Uber, Lyft, WhatsApp outsourcing their communications infrastructure
100% Uber’s text communication strategy globally → Twilio
driver accepts, driver is less 1min away, ride has been cancelled

2m developers, developer-first model: community = sales + marketing
acquire developers like consumers → spend like enterprises

Twilio SIM: 1 SIM number, 1 API, 1 billing relationship, global reach
mass activate/suspend hundreds of SIMs with a few clicks
Microsoft Azure: connect/auth IoT devices to internet w/ Twilio
Lime e-scooters w/ Twilio: 100m rides across 30 countries in 2yrs

$0.4b in R&D, 47% of FTE
$14m acq of automatic speech recognition company Capio (2019)

HOARDERS (orgs)

“The banks took the money the American people gave them,
and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses
and lobby the Congress to kill big reform.” -The Big Short (2016)
📙 

Pension funds ($3,365b)
$1,374b 🇯🇵 Government Pension Investment Fund
$579b 🇺🇸 Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board
$573b 🇰🇷 National Pension Service of Korea
$462b 🇳🇱 National Civil Pension Fund Netherlands
$377b 🇺🇸 California Public Employees

Corporate ($692b): cash+ST+LT investments silicon 6
$205b Apple
$147b Berkshire Hathaway
$137b Microsoft
$121b Alphabet
$82b China Mobile

Private vehicles ($184b): (strategy)
$108b Softbank Vision Fund II (PE)
$21b Blackstone IX (RE)
$20b Global Infrastructure Partners IV (NR)
$20b Brookfield Infrastructure Fund IV (Infra)
$13b GS Mezzanine Partners VII (Debt)

Robo-advisors ($183b)
$84b Vanguard PAS
$41b Schwab Intelligent
$22b Wealthfront
$20b TD Ameritrade
$16b Betterment

University endowments ($177b) not bad
$50b UTexas
$41b Harvard
$30b Yale
$30b Stanford
$26b Princeton

Foundations ($159b): non-profit
$49b Novo Nordisk Foundation
$48b Bill & Melinda Gates
$39b Wellcome Trust
$13b Ford Foundation
$10b H. Hughes Medical Institute

 why is it that we are not surprised

HOARDERS (ppl)

“There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgement
as to see a friend get rich.” -Charles Kindleberger (1978)

CEOs ($1,188m): salary+bonus+stock/options
$513m E. Musk - NASDAQ:TSLA
$256m B. Kennedy - NASDAQ:TLRY
$147m R. Iger - NYSE:DIS
$142m T. Cook - NASDAQ:AAPL
$131m N. Arora - NYSE:PANW

Musicians ($610m): not only touring
$185m Taylor Swift 🇺🇸 (29F)
$150m Kanye West 🇺🇸 (42M)
 
$110m Ed Sheeran 🇬🇧 (28M)
$84m Elton John 🇬🇧 (72M)
$81m Beyoncé Knowles 🇺🇸 (38F)

Athletes ($420m): ex-endorsements
$92m Canelo Alvarez 🥊
$92m Lionel Messi ⚽
$81m Russell Wilson 🏈
$80m Aaron Rodgers 🏈
$75m Neymar ⚽

Actors ($356m): not only movies
$89m Dwayne Johnson (47M)
$76m Chris Hemsworth (36M)
$66m Robert Downey Jr (54M)
$65m Akshay Kumar (52M)
$58m Jackie Chan (65M)

Authors ($235m): books + movies rev
$92m J.K. Rowling
$70m James Patterson
$36m Michelle Obama
$20m Jeff Kinney
$17m Stephen King

Billionaires ($509b): TGP=The Giving Pledge 
$117b Jeff Bezos📝 jeff
$114b Bill Gates - TGP
$106b Bernard Arnault
$89b Warren Buffet - TGP
$83b Mark Zuckerberg - TGP

HOARDERS (gov't)

“The rules!” shouted Ralph, “you’re breaking the rules!”
“Who cares?” -Lord of the Flies (1954)
📙

GDP ($50t): 2019E, current prices
$22.3t 🇺🇸 USA
$15.3t 🇨🇳 China
$5.4t 🇯🇵 Japan
$4.0t 🇩🇪 Germany
$3.2t 🇮🇳 India

Military power: 0=perfect score
0.0615 🇺🇸 USA really good
0.0639 🇷🇺 Russia
0.0673 🇨🇳 China subsurface apex predators
0.1065 🇮🇳 India
0.1584 🇫🇷 France

Fiat currencies: avg daily trading (Forex trading)
$4.5t (90%) 🇺🇸 dollar
$1.5t (31%) 🇪🇺 euro
$1.0t (21%) 🇯🇵 yen
$0.7t (12%) 🇬🇧 pound sterling
$0.4t (7%) 🇦🇺 dollar

SWF ($3.8t): non-pension, “rainy days” + “future gen”
$1,072b 🇳🇴 Norway “Oil Fund” SWF
$941b 🇨🇳 China Investment Corporation
$696b 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
$592b 🇰🇼 Kuwait Invest Authority
$509b 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio

Rich individuals (150k): net worth > $30m
81k 🇺🇸 USA
34k 🇨🇳 China + Hong Kong
18k 🇯🇵 Japan
16k 🇩🇪 Germany
10k 🇨🇦 Canada

Gold reserves ($1t): tonnes in central banks at $1,564/oz
$449b 🇺🇸 USA
$186b 🇩🇪 Germany
$135b 🇮🇹 Italy
$134b 🇫🇷 France
$124b 🇷🇺 Russia

DISRUPTING THE INCUMBENTS

“The battle between every startup and incumbent
comes down to whether the startup gets distribution
before the incumbent gets innovation.” -Alex Rampell (2015)
 follow

DATING

“So, I asked him: What did you search?
And he goes: Jewish and my zip code!” -Aziz Ansari (2015)
📙

200m/mo use digital dating services
2 of top 20 apps by iOS revenue: dating

USA: 49% adults → dating profile, 39% heterosexual couples → met online
algorithms shape the apps and websites you use to find love

Match Group owns 3 of top 10 dating apps by rev:
Tinder, Pairs, Match.com: 9m+ paying users altogether

Tinder: 50m MAU, 5m+ paying, #1 (non-game) app by global rev 2019
male liked 60%+ female profiles, female liked <5% of male profiles

MagicLab ($3b) owns 2 of top 10 apps: Bumble and Badoo go whitney go
60m Badoo (w/ 460m registered), 60m on Bumble
Bumble blocks Sharon Stone's account, account was real not fake @sharonstone

Facebook Dating available in 20 countries
data-sharing agreements w/ jSwipe+Bumble, others —not Match 

10m MAU on ‘compensated dating’ app Seeking Arrangement
8m sugar babies, 2m sugar daddy/momma

20k girls using MyGirlFund.com, chat/flirt for money 

1/7 kids ages 12-17 = sent a sext (sex+text), + 4%/yr ea year of age

MindGeek owns 24 .com sites: PornHub, RedTube, YouPorn… and AgeID
Pornhub (launched 1mo pre-iPhone): 115m/day visits, 20m reg users

12m registered users on OnlyFans, $300m to its 150k content creators 

RIDES

"Energy consumption (cal/g/km) for a bicyclist
is one fifth of that for an unaided walking man." -Scientific American (1973)

36% of USA adults have used ride-share services, 15% in 2015 
first studies: car traffic ↑, bus rides ↓, specially under 5kms 

NYC sets $17.22/hr min wage for ride-hailing drivers
65k ride-hailing drivers vs 180k licensed medallion drivers
cargo-bike pilot: pedal e-vehicles OK to park in comm load spaces c'mon NYC

Uber: 70% USA mkt sh, 15m/day rides, 800+ cities, 60+ countries 
4m drivers, 35% take-rate, $50b mkt cap vs $120b ∑top 7 🇺🇸 airlines 
moves more people than airline industry, Uber Air → 2020 
Yandex Taxi (47% owned by Uber) hits positive EBITDA last quarter 

Lyft: 29% USA mkt sh, 38% take-rate, 95% USA pop coverage
#1 bikeshare operator in North America

4m e-bikes in 🇩🇪 (~10% household) threshold for mass adoption
920k e-bikes sold in Germany (1H 2019)
25% families w/ 2 children in Copenhagen: cargo bike replaces car

street/sidewalk wars: micromobility → fastest tech adoption in history urban freedom
37m trips on shared bikes + 39m on shared scooters (USA 2018)

e-bikes flatten hills. In 🇨🇳: 700m/rides/day > 2x 300m conventional

165 cities w/ Lime's 🚲+🛴 → 100m rides: 0→50m=18mo, 50m→100m=5mo

16yr old SpaceX: 64% mkt sh (85 cargo rockets launched), 🧑‍🚀 soon

London→Sydney flight: 🏁 distance 17,800km + 🏁 time 19hr19min electric 5-seater Lilium Jet

ASSISTANTS

"You don’t have a smart speaker.
You have a smart microphone.
There is no intelligence in the speech.
The intelligence is in the listening." -Horace Dediu (2019)

Stanford develops 'quantum' mic, picks up phonons prev undetectable  two ears, 1 mouth

people speak ~150 words/min vs type ~40 words/min 
voice speech recognition tech → open source

77m/mo use voice assist. in cars (USA), vs 46m/mo on smart speakers hey tesla, drive
Honda's R&D acquires Drivemode, provides drivers w/ voice-to-text
Garmin launches car navigation Speak, powered by Alexa
Tencent w/ Chang’an Automobile Group: in-car version of WeChat

5m Sherpa.ai users, 85% 🇪🇸speaking, hires Siri Co-Founder Tom Gruber

188m installed smart speakers, 29m sold Q3 2019, 2016-2019 CAGR = 92%

70m Amazon’s Echo shipped, 10m in Q3 2019 (🥇37% mkt sh)
100m devices with Alexa installed, now feat Apple/Spotify podcasts 
$1.4m of $5m target = Alexa skill revenue 2019E

21m Alibaba’s Tmall Genie, 4m in Q3 2019 (🥈14% mkt sh)

15m Baidu's speakers, 4m in Q3 2019 (🥉13% mkt sh), OS on 0.4b devices

46m Google’s speakers, 1b devices that “allow” G Assistant
interpreter mode supports 44 languages "Hey Google, be my translator" 

Microsoft's Xbox (~50m base) adds Alexa + G Assistant, drops Cortana

Sonos One G2: compatible w/ Alexa, Siri, G Assistant, starts at $199 

Apple’s HomePod: 5% of USA installed base (3.8m), starts at $299

Facebook Portal ($149) video calling devices, "Hey Portal" + Alexa

COMMUNICATIONS

A little bit of math can accomplish what all the guns and barbed wire can’t:
a little bit of math can keep a secret” - Edward Snowden (2019)
📙 read now, use Tor

text messaging → most used data service in the world 
SMS=26b/day, WhatsApp=65b/day, WeChat=45b/day 

55% of USA households no longer have landlines
Zipwhip text-enables landlines, serves 4m numbers across 35k biz

ISDN phase-out → VoIP: 🇨🇭by ’19 🇳🇿🇦🇺🇩🇪 by ’22 🇬🇧 by ’25 🇫🇷 by ’30

2m+ developers on Twilio’s cloud communication API
$1b ARR threshold passed, WhatsApp = $45m = 7% of 2018 rev

top web content languages: 🥇🇬🇧=57% 🥈🇷🇺=8% 🥉🇪🇸=5%

NSA collected metadata on 530m phone calls in 2017, 3.5x 2016
no matter place / time / what you do → your life = open book 
the content you want + the surveillance you don't in <686 millisec

open source Signal Protocol powers the encryption of: no major flaws in the design
Facebook’s WhatsApp, Microsoft’s Skype, Google’s Allo

2016 internet landmark: encrypted web traffic > unecrypted
Tor Foundation individual donations new annual record 
BBC News launches dark web version: 🇨🇳🇻🇳 don't allow direct access

12m DAU on Slack vs 20m DAU Microsoft Teams (91 Fortune 100 co) 

430m MAU on Reddit, 199m posts, 1.7b comments, and 32b upvotes wow!

100m MAU on Apple News. Snap/Facebook to launch "news" 

70m MAU podcast users USA. NPR's 2020E: podcasts revenue > broadcast so cool!

DECEPTION

“Fraud is not a trade secret.” -Tyler Shultz (2016)

$300b+ digital ad industry, (68% mobile): 1st time >50% of total

USA: Google/Facebook duopoly 90% → 58%, + Amazon → 67% 
$100b triopoly > $87b Σ tv + radio + print
WhatsApp: ads within Status feature launching 2020

Amazon marketplace sellers mislabel: FDA approved, UL certified, ...
$0.4b/yr + 5k FTE to police its online market 

11% shopping sites analyzed by Princeton/UChicago → UI dark patterns 

$72b spent on the lottery (USA 2017), $220/yr/adult
550 tickets/sec on Mega Millions weekend = 2% entire Visa network

55b spam calls (USA 2019) > 2x 2018. TRACED Act ☑, $10k fines by FCC good report

$52m/yr = California DMV's revenue on selling drivers’ personal info just switch to EVs

75% of top 1k sites have implemented Ads.txt, adoption 2x per yr 

47% internet users globally use ad-blockers, Adblock Plus @ 120m MAU

38% of internet traffic → “non-human”: 20% bad bots + 18% good bots  $0.5 per fake Fb account

10m MAU by privacy-focused Brave browser

Linux Foundation: Confidential Computing Consortium to set standards

NYT+Adobe+Twitter: Content Authenticity Initiative

reproducible research = paper + full source code + data to recreate

15% of USA men 50-64yrs → dye their hair, 50%+ of USA women >25yrs
40% of those → blonde. Naturally genetic blonde rate: ~2% dye your hair, dye your skin. [Disclaimer: we are investors in Inkbox]

CREDIT

“This is a Trojan horse of epic proportions.
And the US consumer will easily be co-opted.” -Josh Wolfe (2018)

when cash tx <7% → cash mgmt cost > mg profit on that cash sale
🥇🇳🇴=11% vs 🇺🇸=26%, the leading pack: 🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇬🇧🇳🇱 the nordics, always ahead

1.7b remain unbanked (17%), 50% in 🇧🇩🇨🇳🇮🇳🇮🇩🇲🇽🇳🇬🇵🇰 untapped mkt!
1b credit cards in USA (3.2x pop), 191m cc holders, 483m cc accts

31% adult pop w/ credit scores, 260m Ant Financial, 200m FICO scores  alternative rating

18-sept-1958: birth of the most valuable network effect of all times
Visa + Mastercard + Amex > 96% mkt sh, avg fee: 3.61%/tx
USA poor: 10% of income = fees+tx costs = spent on food = $140b/yr

23% German banks charge <0% interest on retail deposits, 12% 2yrs ago wtf?

Bitcoin surpassed PayPal in transacted volume at $1.3t/yr

PayPal: 0.3b accts, 23m merchants, $10b in loans, mkt cap = 1.3x $AXP bèi bǎo
Venmo: $100b tx run rate, $0.4b in rev, acq for $26m in 2013

Stripe ($35b) in 34 countries: supports WeChat-Alipay-SquareCash etc
Stripe Capital = biz loans. w/ WordPress.com → recurring payments

Square: 90m profiles (24k shops), $0.7b funds held, $6b in loans

440m+ Apple Pay users, 1b tx/mo: growing 4x faster than PayPal

China: people pay w/ phones > 1.9x USA pop. 🥇TenPay(WeChat)=800m
WeChat Pay supports overseas Visa/MasterCard/AmEx/JCB/Discover

Adyen processes McDonald's + Domino’s Pizza + Uber mobile payments

Uber Money: wallet/credit/banking for couriers and drivers

COMMERCE

“World’s largest company by sales (Walmart)
is now the perceived underdog.” -The Economist (2017)

everything the internet did to media is happening to retail experience ROI
9.3k USA store closings (1.6x 2018) highest since 2012

1.5m/parcel/day Manhattan sidewalks. e-comm: ~3x chance of returned

15% of holiday retail sales = ecommerce (+20% YoY), overall 3.4%
$3b global sales by Shopify merchants on BF/CM, $1.5m/min on BF

WhatsApp for Business adds catalogues to enable mobile commerce   Craigslist 2.0

Shopify: 1m merchants, 175 countries, stock up 2,323% since IPO 

1% goods sold in Africa on screen, if @ 10% (≈USA/Europe) → $75b boom historic preview

consumer goods’ ARPU: global avg = $0.6k = China go Europe
🥇USA=$2.0k 🥈UK=$1.6k 🥉Korea=$1.5k ... South Africa=$90

Kylie Jenner [22F] sells 51% @ $0.6b of 5yrs old cosmetics biz to Coty
12 FTE, 160m Instagram followers, Shopify as back-office

China: $2t+ online sales 2019, 35% of retail sales, 80% mobile,  China > RoW

USA: $0.6t online sales, 12% of retail sales , 32% mobile

$38b GMV Alibaba Singles Day: $1b→68sec, $13b→1hr, 90% mobile
USA: $9.4b Cyber Monday + $7.4b Black Friday = $16.8b = 44% Alibaba

Apple App Store: $40b revenues (Q1-Q3 2019), 2.2m apps
Apple App Store revenue per download = 5x Google Play

25% Americans use food delivery apps, sales 40% YoY 
by mkt sh: 🥇DoorDash=35% 🥈UberEats=25% 🥉Grubhub=23%  

TV

“For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain,
there can be no mercy…hunt or be hunted.” -Francis Underwood (2014)

13% global downstream internet traffic → Netflix
9 in 10 USA homes were pay-tv subs (2010), but NPS score < 0
75% of USA households (2019) subs to streaming video on demand  

2019 original program budget: $15b NTFX, $6b AMZN, $6b AAPL, $4b HBO

Netflix (Oscars=6): 165m paid subs, #4 non-game app by revenue
USA: 60m paid subs > 47m subs Σ top 6 cable companies
original shows+movies outperformed licensed content in 2019
USA subs price $9/mo, launching in India $3/mo → aiming for 100m subs

>50% top 50 Netflix shows → owned by rivals launching streaming services 
80% overlap, only 5% of Disney+ subs are canceling Netflix   full-out war

24m subs Disney+ (live Nov-12), $7/mo or $13/mo w/ ESPN+ Hulu 
catalog: Disney/Pixar/Marvel/StarWars/NatGeo. Hulu: 29m USA subs
$13b boxoffice, 5 films >$1b: Endgame/LKing/CaptMarvel/Aladdin/TS4
7 Marvel movies to be released 2022-2023 shopping spree

Amazon (Oscars=3): movie library is 4x Netflix, 10x Hulu

Apple TV+ live in 100 markets: 🇺🇸$5/mo, 🇬🇧£5/mo, 🇪🇺€5/mo
A.Cuarón → exclusive TV content. R.Plepler (HBO / GoT) → "talking"

140m HBO subs, 8m HBO Now subs (USA). AT&T TV launches in 15 markets

1.6m YouTubeTV subs @ $50/mo cable-free live TV is here (70 networks) sorry bbc

>100m paying subs to iQiyi, >100m Tencent Video Subs

MUSIC

“We don’t ask you for free iPhones.
Please don’t ask us to provide you with our music
for no compensation.” -Taylor Swift (2015)

$10/mo for 10yrs now: music streaming = commodity = 0 pricing power price hike?

1% of performers take 60% of all concert-ticket revenue (1982: 26%)
$70 avg ticket in USA (1981: $12), >inflation, driven by superstars
everyone on the road = issue with bands getting tour buses

top 3 labels (Vivendi+Sony+Warner) streaming rev: $960k/hr 
Tencent Music acq 10% Universal Music (owned by Vivendi) for $3.4b
Valence Media (owns Billboard) acquires Nielsen Music big data

streaming = 50% industry’s source of revenue (80% in USA) 2019 overview

USCRB "give songwriters 44% pay hike to 15%" by 2023, apply retroactively

Spotify: 115m paid sub global, 250m MAU, 14% podcast mkt st (USA) future of audio?
~8% equity swap w/ Tencent Music Entmt (660m+ MAU, 35m+ paying)
$26b Spotify mkt cap vs $20b TME mkt cap  #1 platform

Apple Music: 60m paid subs global, 28m in USA (> 26m for Spotify)
launches web player to subs: any device w/ browser, no iTunes bundle, the textbook move
all Apple Music catalog, user’s libraries, 100k global radio stations
35% iPhone customers → Apple Music subs; 30% → Apple Podcasts subs

40m Amazon Unlimited subs, growing @ 70% YoY > Spotify/Music/YouTube

YouTube Music available in 80 countries, videos/audio/lists all in one
free with ads or $10/mo, $5/mo for students, $15/mo family pack

TikTok-owner ByteDance testing music streaming app India + Indonesia

BONUS

“No part of the GDP is immune to innovation.” -Vinod Khosla (2019)

Brokerage: 10m accts on $0 fee app Robinhood

Car lease: 50k/mo users of Fair vehicle leases

Cycling: 0.6m Peloton subscribers cycling from home

Food stamps: Propel manages food benefits of 2m/mo Americans

Governments: 2k+ gov'ts use analytics/visualization SaaS OpenGov

Grammar: 20m checking grammar on Grammarly

Homework: 150m students on Q&A network Brainly (35 markets)

Locksmith: 3k KeyMe smart-kiosks across USA

Lost & found: 20m Tile trackers sold

Meditation: 2m paying subscribers on Calm app

Muslims: 14m/mo pray using Muslim Pro app

Neighborhoods: 250k neighborhoods on Nextdoor ($2b)

News: 4m+ NYT digital-only paying subscribers

Period: 30m women track their period with Flo app

Pets: 300k vetted dog sitters on Rover

Policy: 330m users petitioning governments on Change.org

R&D: 170k scientists using research workflow mgmt Benchling

Religion: 270k communities on Pray.com

Fitness: 48m tracking their activity w/ Strava, growing at 1m/mo

Textbooks: 250k students using online textbooks by Packback