Stats Q3 2019
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“Competing without software is like competing without electricity.” -Naval Ravikant (2016)

Use the filters below to query the data

DRIVERS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

“The great lesson in microeconomics
is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you
and when it’s going to kill you.” -Charlie Munger (1994)

SMART PLATFORMS

“The smartphone is the sun
and everything else orbits it.” -Ben Evans (2015)

7.7b world population. Of them: 🗒️ notes on overpopulation
5.7b adults → age > 15yrs (74%) peak child?

8.0b mobile connections, SIM cards (104%)
5.1b unique mobile phone users (67%)

6.7b w/ electric power (87%), ~1b to go!

5.5b TV users (71%)

5.4b w/ access to working toilets (70%) 🚽 in 🇮🇳

4.0b unique smartphone users (51%), new unit shipments -4%
2.4b Android, ~0.7b Chinese Android, 0.9b iPhones new kid in town
1H 2019 sales (units): 🥇Samsung, 🥈Huawei, 🥉Apple
Huawei: Android forced fork → new OS war?  a trade war won't stop Huawei
Xiaomi: #1 in India for the last 8 qtrs

1.5b cars (19%), of which EV=0.4%
car ownership is rising, not declining, on track to 2b just 4yrs!

1.3b PCs (16%) = 1.1b Windows, 0.2b Mac + Linux
47% of new PC sales (Q2 2019) = Lenovo + HP
0.4b tablets (4.7%)

170m smart watches (2.2%), 53m in USA

160m smart speakers (2.1%), 76m in USA (>1 per household)
outpacing adoption rates of smartphones

THE NEW U. N.

“No nation imagines itself
coterminous with mankind.” -Benedict Anderson (1983)
📙

Security Council’s permanent members:
2.4b Facebook (31%)
2.3b Christianity (29%)
1.8b Islam (23%)
1.5b WhatsApp (19%)
1.4b China (19%)

Security Council’s non-permanent members:
1.4b India (18%)
1.1b Hinduism (14%)
1.1b WeChat (15%)
1.0b Instagram (13%)
1.0b TikTok (13%)  viral videos 101
710m QQ (9.1%)
510m European Union (6.6%)
490m Sina Weibo (6.3%)
330m Twitter (4.3%)
330m USA (4.2%)

Not represented in the General Assembly:
1.2b non-religious (15%), aka “humanists”
1.0b people with no legal identification (13%)

THE INTERNET

“If your big policy idea boils down to restoring the pre-internet status quo,
it is not going to work.” -Balaji S. Srinivasan (2019)

4.5b active internet users (59% of world pop) growth is slowing  mobility report
3.4b active *mobile* internet users (77% of internet users)
37% of all mobile internet traffic = YouTube

3 separate *mobile* internets: 🇨🇳=850m 🇪🇺=300m 🇺🇸=270m
🇮🇳=580m choose b/w: govt surveilled, data protected, corp custodians

3.9b email users (89%), 3.5b active social media users (79%)  the at sign

Wordpress ($3b) powers >33% of the *entire* internet
vs web porn traffic claims of 5% to 15%

avg d/l speed: 28 Mbps mobile, 66 fixed broadband, 112 5G (🇰🇷)  
160m+ Americans can't access / don't use broadband speed FCC v $MSFT

3G coverage @ 95%, LTE > 70%, 5G rollout (IoT revolution) begins
🇺🇸Verizon=11 cities, 🇬🇧Vodafone=7, 🇩🇪D-Telekom=6 Samsung Galaxy S10 5G

2k+ satellites (comms + observation), growing +500/yr and accelerating
🇺🇸=901, 🇨🇳=299, 🇷🇺=153  full database

satellite-based broadband constellations ("fiber" anywhere on Earth) 🛰️ in🚀
SpaceX's Starlink: 60/12k (7k FCC authorized)
Telesat: 0/300 (to be launched by Blue Origin)
OneWeb: 6/648, Viasat: 0/3, Amazon's "Project Kuiper": 0/3.2k

~1% of internet data on surface web (indexed by search engines)
~99% on deep web (not indexed), fastest growing data

CLOUD COMPUTING

“Computing big bangs = cloud (AWS, 2006) +
consumer mobile (iPhone, 2007).” -Mary Meeker (2018)
 her bible v2019

people/businesses continue relentless “march to the cloud”  white paper
public cloud storage ~30% to pass consumer devices (~35%) by 2020
to pass traditional data centers (~40%) by 2021

$800b cloud market cap, on track to $1 trillion
Amazon’s AWS to build VW industrial cloud: data from 122 factories
Microsoft's Azure to move AT&T's non-networking infra to the cloud

world’s most powerful supercomputer: IBM-built “Summit”

Google quantum cpu faster than super computers: 200sec vs 10k yrs

$0.025/GB cost of cloud storage (2019), vs $4.4k/GB in 1990

ubiquitous 1TB: SD Card (Lexar), microSD card (SanDisk and Micron)
SSD: Nimbus Data 100TB ExaDrive DC100 SSD → 20k HD movies

$0.05 cost of 1m transistors (2013), vs $527 in 1990
Moore's law still in effect, but chip-specialization driving price   Gordon Earle Moore
semiconductor co's racing to develop adv chips: 5G, AI, SDV, Robots
next-gen AI microchips funded by DARPA: keep USA ahead of China tech wins all wars

Google Drive: 1b MAU (5m paying)  dev cheat sheet

Dropbox: 600m users (13.6m paying), $8.3b mkt cap
fastest SaaS company to $1b/yr recurring revenues (🏁=8.3 yrs)
integration with Google G Suite + Office 365

Box: 65m users (12.3m paying), $2.5b mkt cap

THE BLOCKCHAIN

"What if this technology could do for the transfer of value,
what the internet did for the transfer of information?" -Abigail Johnson (2017)

every single asset in the world will be tokenized  dist ledger tech

$220b network value of all 2.4k altcoins/tokens
11 crypto-assets w/ network value > $1b

crypto exchanges by *verified* BTC ADTV: 🥇Binance 🥈Bitfinex 🥉kraken
Coinbase, Kraken et al develop the Crypto Rating CouncilCRC

Coinbase: 30m users in ~40 countries, insured accounts
#1 crypto-custodian for institutions: $7b AUM, 120 clients

anonymous/decentralized trust enabled by blockchains → still expensive
security of blockchain is linear to expenditure in mining power
vs door lock increases house security by more than cost of the lock

Facebook-led digital currency Libra includes 28 companies (3 out) white paper
backed by fiat basket: 50% USD, 18% EUR, 14% JPY, 11% GBP, 7% SGD

Bank of England's synthetic hegemonic currency → "end" USD dominance

People’s Bank of China digital yuan: prototype ✔️, to launch

adoption: 🇸🇪 RE registrar, 🇨🇦 grants, 🇪🇪 digital ID, 🇳🇿 legal tender Te Tari Taake
🇺🇸 Delaware: mandatory shareholder’s list → OK on a blockchain
🇺🇸 Ohio: businesses state taxes → pay w/ bitcoin @ ohiocrypto.com

top patent filings: 🥇IBM 🥈Mastercard 🥉Bank of America

JP Morgan + 330 banks = ETH-based blockchain to settle payments Quorum  wall st banks

5-10% interest on crypto backed loans: BlockFi, Binance, et al

MACHINE LEARNING

“The highest forms of understanding we can achieve
are laughter and human compassion.” -Richard Feynman (1988)

cpu power for AI training: 2x every 3.5mo, vs 18mo for Moore’s Law
80 co designing custom chips for deep learning acceleration AI chips

reading comp w/unanswerable questions: human performance = 86.83
🥇Google+Toyota🇺🇸=89.73 🥈PINGAN🇨🇳=88.59 🥉Google+Toyota🇺🇸=88.10

AlphaZero becomes world’s best Chess, Go, and Shogi player
starts from blank slate, no historical data, except game rules

combinations of ingredients to form metallic glass:
scientists found 6k in 50yrs, vs ML → 20k in 1yr

3m scientific abstracts (1922-18) analyzed: insights to new materials 📝

medical research/knowledge: 2x every 70 days (2020E) via deep learning
2x every 3.5yrs (2010), 2x every 50yrs (1950)

DL accuracy 26 skin conditions ≈ USA board-certified dermatologists

Paige.ai's "breakthrough" diagnoses prostate/skin/breast cancer > 98%

DeepMind's acute kidney injuries accuracy > 90%

"Smart city IoT" rationale allowing facial recognition tech deployment Megvii IPO
200m surveillance CCTV deployed by Chinese govt, 600m → 2020
UK court rules police OK to use facial recog to identify individuals

640m driving license photos scanned by FBI+ICE
Pentagon's laser: identify people from a distance by their heartbeat = 

deepfake "fakes": cpu generated ppl, porn videos, impersonification   OMG

ROBOTS

“Drones will be as ubiquitous as sprinklers.” -Chris Anderson (2017)

2.5m industrial robots 2018, installed base growing 15% YoY
robots per 10k employee: 🥇🇸🇬=830 🥈🇰🇷=775 🥉🇩🇪=340…🌎=99

sidewalk delivery robots coming: Amazon's Scout, Postmates's Serve

Boston Dynamic: Atlas’s does backflip, Handle’s stacks boxes  watch out Simone Biles

SD-airplane Zipline: 128km/h speed, 160km range, 1.75kg cargo capacity sorry Maverick

1.3m hobbyist drone fleet (USA, 2018), 900k registered owner-hobbyists
0.3m commercial drone fleet (USA, 2018), 116k certified pilots

Chinese drones rule the sky, DJI has ~70% mkt sh  pop!

smartphones killed the Japanese cameras, but high-end lens up  in '12 we will sell...
Caltech world’s fastest camera, 1012 fps captures traveling light  alexa zoom in

LiDAR "Moore's law": every 18mo → sensor resolution 2x, price 1/2x
$4k for Puck VLP-16, Velodyne’s cheapest LiDAR  S-1 imminent?

Waymo to sell in-house developed LiDAR “Laser Bear Honeycomb”
launches Open Dataset, 1k 20s clips of sync camera+LiDAR data data for research

60+ carmakers issued autonomous vehicle testing permits by CA DMV  cali
Silicon Valley: 2m autonomous miles logged in 2018
Waymo: 10b miles in simulation, but 10m on real roads
Mobileye: 30 *billion* miles of real-world testing required  is it scalable?

15% of Earth’s seafloor mapped (100% goal → 2030)
Saildrone charges $2.5k/day/drone to collect ocean data

CLEAN ENERGY

“You don’t need a weatherman
to know which way the wind blows.” -Bob Dylan (1965)

0.032$/kWh avg solar contract (incl Federal subsidy), -160x since 1976
learning rate: cost falls 29% for every doubling in capacity

price of solar/wind so low → many subsidies no longer necessary cost of energy
Chinese cities: $ solar < $ elec national grid < $ coal-fired power

1.3TW of solar/wind installed (2018), plus 200GW by 2019E
second TW to cost <50%

10% of global energy consumption (2017) = renewable, 13% by 2023E

USA coal power plants: closed > open. 25% of open → closed by 2025  tick tock tick...
1st time renewables gx 68.5 GWh > coal 60.1 GWh (USA Apr-2019)

cumulative installed solar photovoltaic capacity (1H 2019)
🥇China=186GW 🥈USA=69GW 🥉Japan=58GW
USA: #2 source of new capacity additions in 1H 2019 (#1 natural gas)

cumulative installed wind energy capacity (1H 2019)
🥇China=193GW 🥈USA=98GW 🥉Germany=60GW

renewable energy employees (2018): 4m 🇨🇳, 1m 🇧🇷, 0.9m 🇺🇸
fastest-growing USA jobs: solar panel installers, wind turbine techs

CA: carbon-free by 2045, currently at 32%, utilities → 60% by 2030
solar panel on all new homes, starting 2020

USA states wind/solar gx: 🥇ND=54% 🥈KS=47% 🥉OK=43.4%
transition to renewable energy is fully underway: 18 states @ >10%

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

“Mr. Musk—who is 45 years old, the same age as Mr. Ford was in 1908
when he released the Model T.” -WSJ (2017)

7m EVs currently on the road, plus 0.5m e-buses
EV fleet: 🥇🇨🇳=3.2m 🥈🇪🇺=1.5m 🥉🇺🇸=1.3m

1H 2019 sales: 🇨🇳=630k, 🇺🇸=230k, 🌎=1.4m
best-seller race, first to 500k sold: Tesla Model 3 vs Nissan Leaf  VIN tracker

EVs to public charging st: 🇨🇳=3:1 🇪🇺=7:1 🇺🇸=19:1

ChargePoint has 100k charging points (2.5m by 2025) fact sheet

VW: $50b e-plan, EV-only plant in China → the [Chinese] people’s car
1m EV/yr goal 2025-2030, EV-only cars by 2030
Electrify America: 1.5k/2k fast chargers, 308/500 stations

Toyota testing solar-powered Prius 57km range (47km/day avg USA driver)

Porsche drops diesel, $8b by 2020 to electrify *entire* lineup Tycan Turbo

top 10 economies ban non-EV cars “announcements”
by 2023: 🇮🇳 by 2030: 🇧🇷 🇮🇹 by 2040: 🇨🇳 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 by 20😴: 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇨🇦

🇳🇴 (#1 EV per capita) 2025: 100%. 1H 2019 sales = 48% all-electric

California ($7k subsidy) 1H 2019 sales = 8% zero emission vehicles
all public transit routes electric by 2040, EV-only purchases by 2029

$176/kWh avg Lithium-ion battery pack price, down 85% since 2010

car dealers/suppliers brace for a lot of pain
$0.026/mi EV car maintenance vs $0.061/mi for conventional vehicles report

e-bikes: Giant 600k by 2019E, Harley Davidson and Trek launching too

CREATIVE CAPITAL

"Sorry, are you gonna give us the money
or not?" -Cameron Howe (1985)
 Go Mutiny

USA: 5.9m biz (1-499 FTE), 19.5k (500+ FTE) newco? → Stripe Atlas, sorry lawyers
10k co w/ mkt cap > $300m, 8k co w/ mkt cap < $300m

7k listed co NYSE+NASDAQ → $50t mkt cap
57% of Fortune 500 co in 2000 → not F500 anymore, only 60 since 1955  GE's collision course

top 5 co by mkt cap: hq=USA, exchange=USA, comp adv=tech/investments 🇪🇺
S&P500 mkt cap: Σ top 5 ≈ 15% ≈ Σ bottom 225
$1.7t cash + cash eq held by non-financial USA corp biz

2011-19 USA co fundraising: private mkt > public mkt, 1H 2019 → 5:1
SEC: to "take fresh look" pro retail access, wealth ⇏ sophistication  pro's performance

$55b by USA VCs (1H 2019) 2.8k deals, vs $145b & 16.9k global VC 📝
9 states w/ $b+ VC ecosystem 2019E: 🥇CA=$61b 🥈NY=$16b 🥉MA=$10b📝 geo matters

Long Term Stock Ex: USA's 5th nat sec exchange, HQ=San Francisco  

$170b+ in underpriced IPO (1980-2019) → direct listing  follow the champion  podcast
investment bankers are neither bankers nor investors  

$50b in P2P loans to 4m borrowers issued by LendingClub

$15b raised by 2k tokens via Initial Coin Offerings
NVCA→SEC allow crypto + secondaries

$4.6b pledged to 170k project via Kickstarter

$3.1b in grants to 5.6k awards through main USA federal agencies

$1.0b passed to 100k creators using Patreon

SKILLS

“Nobody owes you a career. Manage your career
so that you do not become a casualty.” -Andy Grove (1983)

learn to sell, learn to build. If you can do both → unstoppable

college tuition USA 1978-2018 → 1,375% > 4x over­all inflation
online=mainstream: HBX rebrands to HBS Online, enrollment up 70%
investor day videos are the new free biz school full syllabus
50% of Apple’s USA employment 2018: people w/o 4yr degree

AI-based + blockchain: LinkedIn’s fastest-growing skills

STEM higher starting salaries, mid career social sci majors catch up
500k+ followers: $3.9k per YouTube video, $2.1k per Instagram post
Medium.com writers: 55%>$0, 8%>$100, #1>$14k, $4k+ best single story

>25% of adults *unable* to use a cpu (1.4b people), vs 1b+ illiterate   you do not want to be >40yrs
25% of Goldman Sachs’ workforce (~10k) → computer engineers
30% of K-12 students in USA have a code.org account  compensation data

2k Coursera B2B partners, skill building offered by employers *up*  pgs 212-258
$0.7b budget by Amazon to retrain 100k workers into tech roles by 2025

WeWork: #1 tenant in NYC w/ 0.7m mt2, #2 JP Morgan   investing your time > money
5G speeds to allow "real-time" virtual working, reinvent physical work?

15% of USA labor force (30m) = gig workers vs 3.6m cashier jobs  new index out
CA bill AB-5 'gig economy' contractors → employees take a page from their book
$1b/yr in Uber tips, but <100% to drivers. also at DoorDash, Amazon, ... UK 6-apr-2020

USA labor mkt: 0.9 unemployed per 1 job opening (7m+ job openings)  AI wanted

CHINA

“The American dream is alive. In China.” -NYTimes (2018)

1978 (42yrs ago) capitalism=illegal, entrepreneurship → death sentence  script for Hollywood movie

China ’09 → #1 Exporter, ’13 → #1 Trader, ’17 → #1 Shipping+Ports

#1 unicorn: ByteDance $75b > 2.3x SpaceX (1.5x $UBER)
“9-9-6” schedule of Chinese tech employee: 9am-9pm, 6 day/wk
~400 global unicorns: 🇺🇸=197 v 🇨🇳=98. Decacorns: 🇺🇸=12 v 🇨🇳=6 Internet Report

Silicon Valley (10x innovation) terrified of China (20x), Europe (1x)  CN vs US
global VC: 🇺🇸>50%, 🇨🇳=15% (#1 Sequoia), VC fundraising: 🇺🇸2:1🇨🇳  现在申请
China R&D spending growing 18%/yr vs USA at 4%/yr  Taian Railway Station

$0.9t new silk rd investments eat EU 🇬🇧🇨🇭🇩🇪 + EMkts 🇧🇷🇵🇰🇳🇬, 🇺🇸<10%
Min of Defense's white paper: "USA undermines global stability"  China's National Defense in the New Era
China-backed hackers targeting US-based cancer research centers

Chinese government to pork industry: embrace the “ABCD” 📙
Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain Tech, Cloud Computing, Big Data
state oversight officials sent to 100 private firms: Alibaba, ...

11 Chinese IPOs in USA exchanges (1H 2019)
Shanghai Stock Ex launches Nasdaq-style tech exchange: STAR Market
London SE board unanimously rejects $37b takeover bid by Hong Kong SE  China in the world

USA semiconductor companies “holding the fort” → ⏳?  Integrated Circuit Industries
trade war won't stop espionage/cyberattacks on USA mil+econ secrets  poaching employIPs
USTR findings: acts+policies+practices for tech transfer USA → China

WINNERS TAKE ALL

“You call it monopoly, I call it enterprise.” -John D. Rockefeller (1911)

MICROSOFT

($1,062b mkt cap)
"The greatest mistake ever
is whatever caused Microsoft not to be what Android is.
What's that worth? $400b." -Bill Gates (2019)
 big miss

1.2b/day Office users, #1 productivity service, #1 SaaS product
214m Office cloud subs > Σ Spotify + Amazon Prime, paying ~$99/yr
of which 35m Office 365 consumer subs
Office 365 > 2x G Suite’s penetration in businesses
>1b MS Word installs on Google Play Store
400m Outlook users (100m mobile), 300m Skype users

16% mkt sh (½ AWS, 2x Google) in cloud computing infra w/ Azure
16 consecutive qtrs at >60% QoQ rev growth
Azure to build Walmart and Walgreen's “cloud factory”

88% mkt sh in desktop operating system
1.7b/day Windows devices (installed base), 900m on Windows 10 alone

$26b+ for LinkedIn (2016): 645m profiles, 30m companies

$7.5b for GitHub (2018): outbids Google, Amazon, Tencent, Atlassian

Cortana to be replaced by Microsoft Search
Word’s Resume Assistant (powered by LinkedIn) writes your resume
real-time translator: powerpoint (60 langs), Skype (10 langs)

110m/mo active Minecraft players, 65m/mo Xbox Live users

$9b spent in R&D (1H 2019)
$1b committed to OpenAI (nonprofit AI research)
samples cashier-less technology to Walmart and other retailers

APPLE

($1,012b mkt cap)
“Just the way he advertised: Jesus, Gandhi, Me!” -Bill Burr (2012)

$210b cash on balance sheet > New Zealand's GDP

2.3b devices sold, 1.5b active (0.9m = iPhones)
64% of Americans own an Apple product

#1 dx channel: Google pays $12b/yr → default search eng on iOS devices
new ruling in India: Apple can sell its devices online

iPhone: #1 product of all times, 1.7b cumulative sold (since Q2 07)
vs 400m Sony Walkman, 130m Nokia 3310  40yrs old
installed base grows at 206k/day vs 225k/day pop growth

iPhone, #1 signal of USA wealth, $700+ avg price vs $260+ for Android
83% of USA teens: iPhone. Next phone? → 86% iPhone
iMessage lock-in: high school group chats  Gen Z

80m Apple Watch sold cumulatively, 2019E: 27m > Σ Swiss watchmakers

AirPods → fastest growing product, 40m+ by Q2 2019, 60m by 2019E  blockbuster

iPad = 89% of tablets >$200 in USA, 29% global mkt sh (Q2 2019)

$26b in App Store revenue (1H 2019), 1.8x Play Store

0.4b Apple Pay users. Apple Card (GSachs+MCard) → iOS Wallet

90m Apple News readers. Apple News+ = 300 publications @ $10/mo

$8b in R&D in 1H 2019 (3.7m spent on lobbying)
500m devices w/ Siri, 300 open positions @ Siri division
Project Titan: 70 SD-cars, 140 drivers, Tesla VP of Eng → Apple  

AMAZON

($859b mkt cap)
“If Amazon is in your line of business: Sell now.
If Amazon is not in your line of business:
Sell now; your business sucks.” -@GSElevator (2017)

#1 company by R&D spending: $17b in 1H 2019, vs $29b in 2018 climate pledge

#1 e-retailer USA: ~40% mkt sh (10x Walmart), 4% of *all* USA retail
60% units sold = 3rd-party: 600m SKUs, vs 120k Walmart, 4k Costco
Apple to sell directly on Amazon (iPhones, iPads, and Apple Watches)
Lady Gaga's new line of cosmetics: exclusively on Amazon

105m prime members >Costco: $1.4k/yr prime member vs $1k non-prime  under 10yrs

#1 fulfillment co: 65 Amazon Air planes, 6k trailers, 125k e-vans  largest order ever 
carries 45% of own USA shipments, bldg own air traffic mgmt system
FedEx to end Amazon's ground-delivery + USA air cargo contracts

#1 cloud infrastructure provider: AWS=33% mkt sh
$16b in 1H 2019 rev > Σ cloud (MSFT+GOOG+IBM+BABA)

#1 smart speaker USA: 55% mkt sh (70% June sales), 60m Echo’s sold
1k/s Echo Dot on CyberMonday, 10k people working on Alexa

#1 ebook seller USA: 83% mkt sh, audible.com $ > Σ 1-5 NYC publishers

#2 largest private employer in USA by FTE (#1 Walmart)  they have to be smart
100k warehouse robots “employed”, 1:3 warehouse employees
avg Go store: $1.5m/yr ≈ 150% convenience store w/ cashiers 

#3 in ads (9% mkt sh): $2b/qtr business (heads-up Google/Facebook)
2/3 of *product* searches start/end on amazon.com vs 20% Google

#4 online grocery USA: 26% mkt sh vs Walmart=35%

ALPHABET

($845b mkt cap)
“Google searches are the most important dataset
ever collected on the human psyche.” -Seth Stephens-Davidowitz (2017)
📙 read

9 products with 1b+ MAU each:
Search, Android, Maps, Chrome, YouTube, G Play, Gmail, Drive, Photos

>80% mkt sh in online search (desktop+mobile) mmm
>50% of searches end in zero-clicks: search engine → walled-garden  charts!
15% searches = new: ppl looking for something no one has ever looked
Google Flights USA mkt sh 25% (9% in 2017), vs Kayak at 26%

Android overtook Windows as the *internet* most used OS (Nov-2017)
launched in nov-2007, now 40%+ mkt sh, 2.5b active Android devices

2b Chrome installs in active use
#1 browser across all devices (63%+ mkt sh), vs Safari (#2, 16%) browser wars!

2b MAU on YouTube, 490 channels w/ 10m subs

1b devices with Google Assistant, but 17% mkt sh on smart speakers
4m+ Google Home sold in Q2 2019, now behind Amazon and Baidu
chose not to form a partnership w/ Huawei on smart speaker

leading employer of AI talent (Google acq DeepMind in 2014)
13% ICML papers → Google/DeepMind author, up from 6.3% in 2017

Waymo’s fleet >16m self-driving kms on pub roads, 16b in simulation
logged more kms than all other competitors, vs Uber <5m kms

$12b+ spent in R&D in 1H 2019 climate pledge?
$7m in lobby expenditure, #1 tech company (#2 in USA) 📝 Mr. Thiel

FACEBOOK

($508b mkt cap)
“If you’re offered a seat on a rocket ship,
don’t ask what seat! Just get on.” -Sheryl Sandberg (2012)

2.7b/mo used at least one Facebook-family app
#1 mobile platform by marketer’s budget spent, ahead of Google
65%+ mobile social traffic, 22% digital ad revenue
90m biz profiles, 7m/mo active advertisers, 100b/day messages

Facebook: 2.4b MAU, 1.6b DAU  bday reminder = killer feature

Messenger: 1.3b MAU with 500 FTE, 20b/mo biz-ppl messages
goal: never dial a 1-800 number again
56% of people rather message than call customer service
400m/mo call/video chat, 90m businesses, 300k/mo bots

WhatsApp: 1.5b MAU with 250 FTE, 65b/day messages
click-to-chat button on website → message a business
Business API → biz respond using WhatsApp (Uber✔️)

Instagram: 1b MAU with 700 FTE, 500m/day stories
25m biz-specific profiles, 2m/mo active advertisers using Stories
130m/mo users tap on a shopping ad  the facebook mall

blockchain subsidiary Calibra led by D. Marcus (ex $PYPL), 100 FTE  Libra (as in not Gemini)
founding member of Libra Association with 27 others corps
global currency network launch is planned to be in 2020

$6b R&D in 1H 2019
purchased ~90 companies over the last 15 years treason?

TENCENT

($398b mkt cap)
“Ideas are not important in China –execution is.” -Pony Ma (2011)

largest games company in the world: by revenue and users
#1 by users (China): League of Legends (PC) + Honor of Kings (mobile)
400m/mo PUBG Mobile players (50m DAU) > 250m from Fortnite

#1 smartphone community (China): 1.1b+ MAU on Weixin & WeChat
WeChat = the OS for the entire Chinese economy
1m mini apps that run inside WeChat, one with 250m users
WeChat app ecosystem = 50% Apple App Store (2.1m apps)

#1 mobile payment platform (China): 0.8b MAU, 1b/day tx
100m users on wealth mgmt platform LiCaiTong: $110b AUM
810m MAU on QQ (short+mini videos), 550m MAU Qzone (blogs)

>100m digital content subs, 50% YoY +
TencentVideo @ 97m subs, #2 iOS video app by rev (60% of Netflix)
#1 news services by MAU, #1 online content library/publishing

active investment portfolio of 700 co: 120+ unicorns, 60+ IPOs
$4.5b → DiDi, $1.8b → Tesla, $1.4b → Flipkart, $150m → Reddit
owns 12% of investment bank China International Capital Corp (CICC)

$2b in R&D (1H 2019), cloud infra revenues 2x in 2018, reach $1.3b
computing center for driverless tech with BMW
post ZTE block → support China’s chip industry w/ semiconductor R&D

Prosus (Nasper's arm owns 31% Tencent) IPOs on Euronext Amsterdam  prospectus

TESLA

($43b mkt cap)
“Musk has made every Tesla customer a venture capitalist.” -Steve LeVine (2016)

most valuable USA car makers: GM = 1.2x Tesla = 1.5x Ford  valuation model
Tesla’s FTEs = 23% GM, = 21% Ford

best car ownership experience try again Europe
buy online + over-the-air *software* updates
NHTSA gives five-star safety ratings in all categories to S,X,3
v10: autopilot w/ “summon”, sentry/dog/theatre-modes, pano glass roof

245k vehicles delivered in 2018, 95k in Q2 2019 (ATH) → 7k/week leaked email

Shanghai plant, aim for 1k/week 2019E. goal 500k/yr  sorry Panasonic
🇨🇳's Ministry of Industry and IT: Tesla exempt from 10% purchase tax

Model S @ $80k, 592km range (WR any EV) #1 by mkt sh (37% USA)
faster than Ferrari/Lamborghini, Model S 100D 0-60mph in 2.4s

Model 3 @ $39k, 496km range, 0-60mph in 3.2s, 260km/h top speed
#1 passenger vehicle in CA, IIHS: top marks, Euro NCAP: 5★ rating  safest car ever

Model X @ $85k, 520km range (WR any electric SUV), #2 by mkt sh

Model Y (2020E) @ $58k, “roomier” model 3 crossover

Roadster 2G, to be quickest production car ever: 0-60mph in 1.9s
reservations at $50k, ‘Founder Series’ → $250k *upfront*

$0.7b R&D 1H 2019: 2k Semi truck pre-paid reservations, starting $150k 📷 with 🧠
proprietary data + chips + footage + GPS = new products eg. insurance 📝
V3 Supercharger: 1.5k/cars/day, Megapack: 3 MWh utility-scale battery

BITCOIN

($146b mkt cap)
“Bitcoin is the best performing asset
over the last decade.” -Anthony Pompliano (2019)

first digital/unforgeable/scarce commodity in the history of the world  just 9pgs

stock-to-flow model shows statistical significance w/ BTC mkt value
gold and silver also in line with the model  read twice

1 BTC > 5.75x Gold oz, bitcoin overtook gold in Mar-2017

10yrs old BTC: 18m circulating (86%), 3m to mine ($8.4k+ ea!)

51% attack cost: $16b in hardware, $11m/day in electricity consumption
strongest computing network in the world = bitcoin
attacked 1k/x/day, impenetrable for 10+ yrs

bitcoin’s “electricity-hungry” consumption ≈ 0.32% world ≈ 🇦🇹
Thermodynamics 101: "energy can neither be created nor destroyed;
energy can only be transferred or changed from one form to another"

$4b/yr spent by miners in securing the network

market is smaller, but more efficient/regulated, than reported  nice job Bitwise
$70b BTC mkt cap → ~$270m spot volume (0.39% daily turnover)
$6.7t Gold mkt cap → ~$37b spot volume (0.53% daily turnover)

<0.1% avg price deviation (1 exchange vs aggregate top 10 exchanges)
$91m BTC futures volume (CME + CBOE), pre Bakkt Bitcoin Futures
TDAmeritrade (among USA's oldest/largest brokers) offers BTC futures

$GBTC most actively traded stock on OTCMarkets on 7-May-2019  btc 101
$2.5b = Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's AUM  #dropgold

ORGANIZATIONAL HOARDING

“The banks took the money the American people gave them,
and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses
and lobby the Congress to kill big reform.” -The Big Short (2016)
📙 

Pension funds ($3,356b)  300 ranking
$1,365b 🇯🇵 Government Pension Investment Fund
$579b 🇺🇸 Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board
$573b 🇰🇷 National Pension Service of Korea
$462b 🇳🇱 National Civil Pension Fund Netherlands
$377b 🇺🇸 California Public Employees

Corporate ($693b): cash+ST+LT investments
$210b Apple
$142b Berkshire Hathaway
$137b Microsoft
$121b Alphabet
$82b China Mobile

Robo-advisors ($239b)  classic
$140b Vanguard PAS
$41b Schwab Intelligent
$20b Wealthfront
$20b TD Ameritrade
$18b Betterment

Private vehicles ($179b): (strategy)
$108b Softbank Vision Fund II (PE)
$21b Blackstone IX (RE)
$20b Brookfield Infrastructure Fund IV (Infra)
$18b Global Infrastructure Partners IV (NR)
$13b GS Mezzanine Partners VII (Debt)

University endowments ($162b)
$41b Harvard
$34b UTexas
$30b Yale
$30b Stanford
$26b Princeton

Foundations ($128b): non-profit
$52b Bill & Melinda Gates
$31b Wellcome Trust
$20b H. Hughes Medical Institute
$13b Garfield Weston
$13b Ford Foundation

INDIVIDUAL HOARDING

“There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgement
as to see a friend get rich.” -Charles Kindleberger (1978)

CEOs ($1,188m): salary+bonus+stock/options
$513m E. Musk - NASDAQ:TSLA
$256m B. Kennedy - NASDAQ:TLRY
$147m R. Iger - NYSE:DIS
$142m T. Cook - NASDAQ:AAPL
$131m N. Arora - NYSE:PANW

Musicians ($610m): not only touring
$185m Taylor Swift 🇺🇸
$150m Kanye West 🇺🇸
$110m Ed Sheeran 🇬🇧
$84m Elton John 🇬🇧
$81m Beyoncé Knowles 🇺🇸

Actors ($356m): not only movies
$89m Dwayne Johnson (47yrs)
$76m Chris Hemsworth (36yrs)
$66m Robert Downey Jr (54yrs)
$65m Akshay Kumar (52yrs)
$58m Jackie Chan (65yrs)

Athletes ($420m): ex-endorsements
$92m Canelo Alvarez 🥊
$92m Lionel Messi ⚽
$81m Russell Wilson 🏈
$80m Aaron Rodgers 🏈
$75m Neymar ⚽

Authors ($207m): books + movies rev
$86m James Patterson
$54m J.K. Rowling
$27m Stephen King
$21m John Grisham
$19m Jeff Kinney, Dan Brown (tied)

Billionaires ($465b): TGP=The Giving Pledge  philantropy in 10 charts
$108b Jeff Bezos
$107b Bill Gates - TGP  Inside Bill's Brain
$97b Bernard Arnault
$82b Warren Buffet - TGP
$71b Mark Zuckerberg - TGP

SOVEREIGN HOARDING

“The rules!” shouted Ralph, “you’re breaking the rules!”
“Who cares?” -Lord of the Flies (1954)
📙

GDP ($48t): 2019E, current prices
$21.3t 🇺🇸 USA  peacekeeping
$14.2t 🇨🇳 China
$5.2t 🇯🇵 Japan
$4.0t 🇩🇪 Germany
$3.0t 🇮🇳 India

Military power: 0=perfect score
0.0615 🇺🇸 USA
0.0639 🇷🇺 Russia
0.0673 🇨🇳 China 🐉 vs 🦅
0.1065 🇮🇳 India
0.1584 🇫🇷 France

Fiat currencies: avg daily trading (Forex trading)
$4.5t (90%) 🇺🇸 dollar
$1.5t (31%) 🇪🇺 euro
$1.0t (21%) 🇯🇵 yen
$0.7t (12%) 🇬🇧 pound sterling
$0.4t (7%) 🇦🇺 dollar

SWF ($3,812b): non-pension, “rainy days” + “future gen”
$1,074b 🇳🇴 Norway “Oil Fund” SWF
$940b 🇨🇳 China Investment Corporation
$696b 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
$592b 🇰🇼 Kuwait Invest Authority
$509b 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio

Rich individuals (150k): net worth > $30m
81k 🇺🇸 USA
25k 🇨🇳 China + Hong Kong
18k 🇯🇵 Japan
16k 🇩🇪 Germany
10k 🇨🇦 Canada

Gold reserves ($982b): tonnes in central banks at $1,495/oz 💰 gold fever
$429b 🇺🇸 USA
$178b 🇩🇪 Germany
$129b 🇮🇹 Italy
$128b 🇫🇷 France
$118b 🇷🇺 Russia

DISRUPTING THE INCUMBENTS

“The battle between every startup and incumbent
comes down to whether the startup gets distribution
before the incumbent gets innovation.” -Alex Rampell (2015)
 follow

DATING

“So, I asked him: What did you search?
And he goes: Jewish and my zip code!” -Aziz Ansari (2015)
📙

200m/mo use digital dating services
15%+ of top 20 apps by iOS revenue: dating

USA: 48% created a dating profile, 39% of heterosexual couples met online desintermediating friends
algorithms shape the apps and websites you use to find love  algorithm  really?

Match Group owns 3 of top 10 apps (by rev): Tinder, Pairs, Match.com
9m+ paying users altogether

Tinder: 50m MAU, 5m+ paying, #1 (non-game) app by global rev Q2 2019
Q2 2019 results: $0.5b in rev (18% YoY), 41% EBITDA mg, 0.5m new subs
male liked 60%+ female profiles, female liked <5% of male profiles educated women

Rimberg Intl owns 2 of top 10 apps: Bumble and Badoo
60m Badoo (w/ 450m registered), 50m on Bumble

Facebook Dating available in 20 countries incl USA
suggests other Facebook Dating users as potential matches

10m MAU on ‘compensated dating’ app Seeking Arrangement
8m sugar babies, 2m sugar daddy/momma

20k girls using MyGirlFund.com, chat/flirt for money college "fund"

1/7 kids ages 12-17 = sent a sext (sex+text), + 4%/yr ea year of age

MindGeek owns 24 .com sites: PornHub, RedTube, YouPorn… and AgeID
Pornhub (launched 1mo before iPhone): 100m/day visits, 22m reg users

porn is the biggest development in sexuality research ever

RIDES

"Energy consumption (cal/g/km) for a bicyclist
is one fifth of that for an unaided walking man." -Scientific American (1973)

NYC sets $17.22/hr min wage for ride-hailing drivers medallions+suicides+bailouts=M.Lewis’s new book?
65k ride-hailing drivers vs 50k drivers (13k yellow cabs)

first studies: car traffic ↑ bus rides ↓, specially under 5kms trip distances
Uber+Lyft vehicles = 2-13% of vehicles in 6 major USA cities

Uber: 71% USA mkt sh, 35% x̄ fare take-rate, 800+ cities, 60+ countries
1m trips (100k users) w/ JUMP bikes/scooters in SF post acq
moves more people than airline industry, Uber Air → 2020✌️  thx, pass
Uber Freight: 1k biz, 400k drivers, hiring 2k ppl in Chicago HQ

Lyft: 27% USA mkt sh, 38% x̄ fare take-rate, 95% USA pop coverage greed is good?
acq Motivate = 80% USA bike-share → Citibike utilization goes 3x

4m e-bikes in 🇩🇪 (~10% household) threshold for mass adoption
25% families w/ 2 children in Copenhagen: cargo bike replaces car  history lesson  volkswagen 2.0

street/sidewalk wars: micromobility → fastest tech adoption in history

e-bikes flatten hills. In 🇨🇳: 700m/rides/day > 2x 300m conventional
SF allows 1k/scooters/co: JUMP, Lime, Spin, Scoot (Bird). 2x coverage

70 cities w/ Lime's 🚲+🛴 → 100m rides: 0 to 50m:18mo, 50m to 100m:5mo -$100m/qtr

Boeing tests VTOL flying taxi prototype, rumored to be for Uber

16yr old SpaceX: 64% mkt sh (80 rockets launched), cargo + passengers

USA House bill: $5M for Hyperloop Cleveland→Chicago (550kms in 28min)

Boring Co 1st contract: 1km shuttle around Las Vegas Convention Center elon

ASSISTANTS

"You don’t have a smart speaker.
You have a smart microphone.
There is no intelligence in the speech.
The intelligence is in the listening." -Horace Dediu (2019)

Stanford develops 'quantum' mic, picks up phonons prev undetectable  the voice revolution

people speak ~150 words/min vs type ~40 words/min
voice speech recognition tech → open source  proper english

160m installed smart speakers, 26m sold Q2 2019, 2016-2020E CAGR = 48%

77m/mo use voice assistants in cars (USA), vs 46m/mo on smart speakers
Sherpa.ai claims 5m users (85% Spanish-speaking), working w/ Porsche  siri→sherpa
Garmin launches car navigation Speak, powered by Alexa
Tencent w/ Chang’an Automobile Group: in-car version of WeChat

60m Amazon’s Echo shipped since Q1 2017, 6.6m in Q2 2019 (25% mkt sh)
100m Amazon devices with Alexa installed
UK’s NHS offers basic medical advice for common maladies via Alexa

11m Baidu's smart speaker installed, #2 in Q2 2019 sales (17% mkt sh)
DuerOS on 400m devices (150m in Nov-2018), 2k skills

42m Google’s speakers shipped since Q1 2017, 4.3m in Q2 2019
1b installed Google devices that “allow” voice commands w/ Assistant

Microsoft's Xbox (~50m installed) supports Cortana, Alexa, G Assistant

Sonos One G2: compatible w/ Alexa, Siri, G Assistant, starts at $199

Alibaba’s Tmall Genie: 18m sold since Q1 2017, starts at $79

Apple’s HomePod: 4m sold in Q4 2018, starts at $299  who to trust?

Facebook Portal video calling devices, "Hey Portal" and Alexa too  acq by cisco

COMMUNICATIONS

“😂 word of the year 2015” -Oxford Dictionaries (2015)

text messaging → most used data service in the world
26b/day SMS vs WhatsApp=65b/day, WeChat=45b/day

55% of USA households no longer have landlines
Zipwhip text-enables landlines, serves 3.8m numbers across 20k biz

migration to VoIP deadline: 🇨🇭by ’19 🇳🇿🇦🇺🇩🇪 by ’22 🇬🇧 by ’25 🇫🇷 by ’30

2m+ developers on Twilio’s cloud communication API
$1b ARR threshold passed, WhatsApp = $45m = 7% of 2018 rev  go TWLO go

most pictured iPhone (2017): #1 scenery, #2 info I need to remember

2.8k Unicode approved emojis v 470k entries in Merriam-Webster  emoji support
people using emoji > English language. most used 😂 > 2.1x ❤️  rosetta stone 2.0
web content languages: 🥇English>50% 🥈Russian=6% 🥉German<6%
'OK' most spoken word globally (in use for ~yrs)

NSA collected metadata on 530m phone calls in 2017, 3.5x 2016
FCC proposal to carriers “track 911 caller’s locations ~3 meters”

open source Signal Protocol powers the encryption of:
Facebook’s WhatsApp, Microsoft’s Skype, Google’s Allo  hackers

12m DAU on Slack vs 13m DAU Microsoft Teams (91 Fortune 100 co)  s-1

Zoom @ $21b, underdog founders, oversaturated/unsexy videoconf mkt

70m MAU podcast users USA. NPR's 2020E: podcasts revenue > broadcast  follow the money

85m MAU on Apple News (330m on Reddit). Snap/Facebook to launch "news"  paywall is the new black

SCAM

“Fraud is not a trade secret.” -Tyler Shultz (2016)

$300b+ digital ad industry, (68% mobile): 1st time >50% of total full yr report

USA: Google/Facebook duopoly 90% → 60%, + Amazon → 69%
$88b triopoly > $85b Σ tv + radio + print
WhatsApp: ads within Status feature launching 2020  ads=$

placement on Amazon (10% results) 'advertising', Walmart: 'marketing'  yes/no?
Amazon marketplace sellers mislabel: FDA approved, UL certified, ... bad behaviour

$72b spent on the lottery (USA 2017), $220/yr/adult

GrubHub updates restaurant listings w/ GrubHub-owned phones/domains

Adobe developing img manipulation detection → spot photoshopped  MUST read

50%+ of USA women >25yrs → dye their hair, 7% in 1956
40% of those → blonde. Naturally genetic blonde rate: ~2%  smoking prohibited

40% of internet traffic → “non-human” signals, 55% of emails = SPAM

47% internet users globally use ad-blockers, Adblock Plus @ 120m MAU  duck duck go
4m using browser extensions that sell your every click
54% sites supporting 2-Factor authentication  2FA

Brave re Google "data not anonymized" → "shares personal info"  workaround=cheating?

Linux Foundation: Confidential Computing Consortium to set standards

12b stolen emails/passwords on the black mkt, $60 = scanned passport

FBI: 25% victims wire money to fraudsters, FCC: 50% of calls = SPAM

malware attacks to biz + critical infra: +200% in 1H 2019 vs 1H 2018  on the rise

CREDIT

“This is a Trojan horse of epic proportions.
And the US consumer will easily be co-opted.” -Josh Wolfe (2018)

when cash tx <7% → cost to manage cash > mg profit on that cash sale  too little too late
🇸🇪=13%, 🇺🇸=30%, 🇬🇧=21% (branches @ -1k/yr, ATMs @ -300/mo) e-krona  too fast

18-sept-1958: birth of the most valuable network effect of all times  must read
Visa + Mastercard + Amex > 96% mkt sh, get paid ~3%/tx
~$350/yr on bank fees by avg middle-income USA consumer  good 101
USA poor: 10% of income = fees+tx costs = spent on food = $140b/yr

1.7b remain unbanked (17%), 50% in 🇧🇩🇨🇳🇮🇳🇲🇽🇳🇬🇵🇰 untapped mkt!

Bitcoin surpassed PayPal in transacted volume at $1.3t/yr  must read

PayPal: 290m accts, 22m merchant, $PYPL mkt cap $122b > $100b $AXP
PayPal Checkout conversion = 2.9x other digital wallets
1st international company to obtain payments license in China go west

Square: 90m customers, 15m/mo w/ Cash App, $5b in loans since 2014

Stripe ($35b) in 34 countries: supports WeChat-Alipay-SquareCash etc
Stripe Capital new loans product, customer repays from sales  no paperwork

380m+ Apple Pay users, 1b tx/mo: growing 4x faster than PayPal
Apple + GSachs + MCard = Apple Card: 1-3% in cash back

WhatsApp: P2P payments/remittances in India, mobile wallet in 🇮🇩  uber too

China: people pay w/ phones > USA pop. 🥇TenPay(WeChat)=910m  face=pay

31% adult pop covered by credit bureaus, 400+ rating agencies in USA
260m w/ Ant Financial credit scores vs 200m w/ FICO scores

COMMERCE

“World’s largest company by sales (Walmart)
is now the perceived underdog.” -The Economist (2017)

everything the internet did to media is happening to retail
8.4k retail stores to close 2019E > 6.2k in 2008. But 11.3k to open  full list
NY retail vacancies 2x in 10yrs, 80% of Sears stores (2000) → close  forever dead  bye-rneys

1% goods sold in Africa on screen, if @ 10% (≈USA/Europe) → $75b boom

Kylie Jenner (age=22) fully owns $360m/yr biz, world’s youngest $b
front-office = 150m Instagram followers, back-office → Shopify  insta mall
Shopify: 0.8m merchants, 175 countries, stock up 1,833% since IPO

consumer goods’ ARPU: global avg = $0.6k = China
🥇USA=$2.0k 🥈UK=$1.6k 🥉Korea=$1.5k ... South Africa=$90 (ninety)

China: $1.9t online sales 2019E, 80% mobile, 35% of retail sales
$31b Alibaba’s singles day: $1b→1min 25s, $10b→1hr 1min, 90%=mobile

USA: $0.6t online sales, 40% mobile, 16% of retail sales
reminder: Amazon has a low single digit mkt sh of USA retail
$7.9b Cyber Mon (36% mobile), $6.2b Black Fri ($1b w PayPal mobile)

Apple App Store: $26b revenues (1H 2019), 2.2m apps
Apple App Store revenue per download = 5.2x Google Play

Google Play Store: $14b in revenues (1H 2019), 3.3m apps

Walmart's $98/yr unlimited grocery delivery from 1.4k stores  mkt rumours
e-commerce unit to lose $1b/yr on $21b+ revenue 📝

Costco’s simple 40yrs old formula works  so good

TV

“For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain,
there can be no mercy…hunt or be hunted.” -Francis Underwood (2014)

9 in 10 USA homes were pay-tv subs (2010), but NPS score < 0
streaming service subs > cable TV subs. UK TV viewers: -50% since 2010
avg daily min spent (USA): 226min mobile > 216min TV

2019 original program budget: $15b NTFX, $6b AMZN, $6b AAPL, $3b HBO

Netflix (Oscars=6): 165m paid subs globally, #2 non-game app by revenue 📝
USA: 60m paid subs > 47m subs Σ top 6 cable companies
Netflix compression tech: 3.3x Amazon Prime, 7.0x Apple iTunes
wins $200m deal w/ “Game of Thrones” creators, outbids Amazon/Disney
signs $60m three-project deal with Beyoncé

>50% top 50 Netflix shows → owned by rivals launching streaming services

Disney+ live Nov-12, $7/mo ($70/yr), bundle w/ ESPN+ & Hulu → $13/mo  the power of magic
catalog: Disney/Pixar/Marvel/StarWars/NatGeo. Hulu: 27m USA subs
ESPN 86m USA cable TV subs, ESPN+ for $5/mo → 2m paid subs in 1yr
Disney 2019: 7 films grossing > $8b, 40% USA box office mkt share CEO Bob  try to cross that moat
300m MAU by Disney-owned Hotstar in 🇮🇳, 3m paying users > 2x Netflix chasing growth

Amazon (Oscars=3): movie library is 4x Netflix, 10x Hulu not everything that shines is gold

Apple TV+ premiers Nov-1 in 100 markets: $5/mo 🇺🇸, £5/mo 🇬🇧, €5/mo 🇪🇺  make it rain

140m global HBO subs, 8m HBO Now subs (USA). 2020: HBO Max → "Friends"

1.5m YouTubeTV subs @ $50/mo cable-free live TV is here (70 networks)  move fast, win deals

>100m paying subs to iQiyi, <100m Tencent Video Subs streamed 15b+ times

MUSIC

“We don’t ask you for free iPhones.
Please don’t ask us to provide you with our music
for no compensation.” -Taylor Swift (2015)

1% of performers take 60% of all concert-ticket revenue (1982: 26%)  superstars!
$70 avg ticket in USA (1981: $12), >inflation, driven by superstars
everyone on the road = issue with bands getting tour buses

streaming = 50% industry’s source of revenue  global report

top 3 labels (Vivendi+Sony+Warner) streaming rev: $960k/hr

>60m paid streaming subs USA (1H 2019), streaming rev +26%  1H 2019
80% industry source of revenue = streaming

USCRB "give songwriters 44% pay hike to 15%" by 2023, apply retroactively

Spotify: 110m paid sub global, 230m MAU, 10% podcast mkt st (USA)  really good
~8% equity swap w/ Tencent Music Entmt (650m+ MAU, 30m+ paying)
$20.5b Spotify mkt cap vs $20.9b TME mkt cap

Tencent Music to buy 10-20% of Universal Music Group (owned by Vivendi)

Apple Music: 60m paid subs global, 28m in USA (> 26m for Spotify)
launches web player (beta) to subs: any device w/ browser, no iTunes
all Apple Music catalog, users libraries, 100k global radio stations
35% iPhone customers → Apple Music subs; 30% → Apple Podcasts subs

30m+ Amazon Unlimited subs, growing @ 70% YoY > Spotify/Music/YouTube turbo growth

YouTube Music available in 80 countries, videos/audio/lists all in one
free with ads or $10/mo, $5/mo for students, $15/mo family pack

Winamp returns w/ mobile/desktop app, reached 60m users in 2011

BONUS

“No part of the GDP is immune to innovation.” -Vinod Khosla (2019)

Brokerage: 6m accts on $0 fee app Robinhood  pioneers get arrows on their backs

Car lease: 45k/mo users of Fair vehicle leases

Cycling: 0.5m Peloton subscribers cycling from home

Food stamps: Propel manages food benefits of 2m/mo Americans

Governments: 2k gov'ts use analytics/visualization SaaS OpenGov

Grammar: 20m/day checking grammar on Grammarly

Gym: 5.5m Fitness Blender subscribers

Homework: 150m students on Q&A network Brainly (35 markets)

Locksmith: 2k KeyMe smart-kiosks across USA

Lost & found: 20m Tile trackers sold  feature or company?

Meditation: 2m paying subscribers on Calm app

Muslims: 12m/mo pray using Muslim Pro app

Neighborhoods: 250k neighborhoods on Nextdoor ($2b)

News: 3.8m NYT digital-only paying subscribers (81% of total)

Period: 30m women track their period with Flo app  data talks

Pets: 200k vetted dog sitters on Rover

Policy: 315m users petitioning governments on Change.org

R&D: 170k scientists using research workflow mgmt Benchling

Religion: 270k communities on Pray.com

Textbooks: 250k students using online textbooks by Packback  inflation mmm